Game Analysis
Arizona (-3.5) vs CAROLINA
The Cardinals are playing fast and only getting faster, recording a season-high 53% no-huddle rate last week. Kyler Murray seems more comfortable in Kliff Kingbury’s offense this year and DeAndre Hopkins is proving to be a great offseason addition – leading the NFL in receiving yards. However, Hopkins will line up opposite Carolina’s best CB Donte Jackson on Sunday, so perhaps he’ll be slowed a bit.
Panthers’ QB Teddy Bridgewater still seems to be relying on passes to players coming out of the backfield even without Christian McCaffrey, as their backup running back Mike Davis had 9 receptions last week. The Cardinals are surrendering over 10 yards per target to opposing running backs so expect Davis to have even more success in the passing game this week.
Carolina’s top wide receiver, Robby Anderson, is gaining 2.76 yards per route run (10th) and has a difficult matchup against 8-time Pro Bowl cornerback Patrick Peterson this week. However, there may be space to get behind Peterson for the speedy WR as Arizona’s defense will be without safety Budda Baker due to thumb surgery. Baker is worth 0.7 points by our metrics.
Our model favors the Cardinals by 5.1 points, with a predicted total of 50.9 points but the matchup favors Carolina and the Panthers’ upset win last week should put some wind in their sails after starting the season with two losses. Game 4 underdogs of more than 1 point are 53-21-3 ATS after winning their first game of the season in week 3.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
39.7
36.0
-
Succ Pass Plays
45.9%
43.6%
-
Sack Rate
5.0%
10.2%
-
Int Rate
4.6%
0.0%
-
Deep Pass Rate
17.7%
15.5%
-
Big Pass Yards
32.2%
46.1%
-
NYPP
6.5
6.3
Rush
-
Rush Plays
31.7
25.0
-
RB YPR
3.6
4.4
-
Stuff Rate
15.7%
23.6%
-
Succ Rush Plays
51.9%
46.2%
-
Big Rush Yards
52.7%
30.8%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.7
4.4
Game
-
All Snaps
71.3
61.0
-
Early Down Succ
48.9%
48.0%
-
Succ Rate
48.6%
44.3%
-
Big Yards Rate
40.5%
40.9%
-
Yards Per Play
5.7
5.5
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.0%
1.1%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
26.0
28.7
-
Run Ratio
44.3%
41.0%
-
Starting Field Pos
22.9
32.0
-
Game Control
4.1
-4.1
Pass
-
Pass Plays
37.3
38.7
-
Succ Pass Plays
50.7%
49.9%
-
Sack Rate
6.7%
1.3%
-
Int Rate
1.6%
1.6%
-
Deep Pass Rate
19.7%
16.1%
-
Big Pass Yards
32.0%
37.7%
-
NYPP
7.3
6.8
Rush
-
Rush Plays
25.0
25.3
-
RB YPR
3.7
5.1
-
Stuff Rate
22.4%
20.3%
-
Succ Rush Plays
49.4%
61.5%
-
Big Rush Yards
31.7%
43.6%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.9
5.0
Game
-
All Snaps
62.3
64.0
-
Early Down Succ
52.2%
54.4%
-
Succ Rate
50.3%
54.5%
-
Big Yards Rate
32.2%
39.2%
-
Yards Per Play
6.0
6.0
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.9%
1.9%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
30.0
27.5
-
Run Ratio
40.4%
40.2%
-
Starting Field Pos
30.2
31.6
-
Game Control
-2.9
2.9
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2020 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@SF |
24 – 20 W |
-2.5 |
35.7% / 41.7% |
4.8% / 8.3% |
2.5% / 0.0% |
5.3 / 6.8 |
50.0% / 48.0% |
16.7% / 20.0% |
5.0 / 4.9 |
78 / 61 |
41.0% / 52.1% |
42.3% / 44.3% |
36.4% / 42.9% |
5.2 / 6.0 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
46.2% / 41.0% |
24.8 / 32.0 |
2 |
WAS |
30 – 15 W |
15.0 |
46.3% / 37.8% |
7.3% / 10.8% |
2.6% / 0.0% |
6.8 / 5.4 |
50.0% / 60.9% |
15.6% / 17.4% |
5.0 / 5.1 |
73 / 60 |
48.1% / 48.9% |
47.9% / 46.7% |
50.7% / 44.3% |
6.0 / 5.3 |
0.0% / 3.3% |
43.8% / 38.3% |
24.6 / 27.5 |
3 |
DET |
23 – 26 L |
-0.2 |
55.6% / 51.4% |
2.8% / 11.4% |
8.6% / 0.0% |
7.4 / 6.6 |
55.6% / 29.6% |
14.8% / 33.3% |
4.0 / 3.3 |
63 / 62 |
57.7% / 42.9% |
55.6% / 41.9% |
34.5% / 35.4% |
6.0 / 5.2 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
42.9% / 43.5% |
19.4 / 36.4 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2020 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
LV |
30 – 34 L |
-2.6 |
45.7% / 56.7% |
2.9% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
7.4 / 8.0 |
56.7% / 64.5% |
16.7% / 16.1% |
4.3 / 4.3 |
65 / 61 |
50.0% / 62.0% |
50.8% / 60.7% |
29.9% / 37.1% |
6.0 / 6.1 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
46.2% / 50.8% |
26.4 / 32.9 |
2 |
@TB |
17 – 31 L |
-12.1 |
53.2% / 40.0% |
10.6% / 0.0% |
4.8% / 2.9% |
7.2 / 6.2 |
58.3% / 59.1% |
12.5% / 27.3% |
3.6 / 5.5 |
71 / 57 |
55.2% / 47.8% |
54.9% / 47.4% |
24.6% / 53.1% |
6.0 / 5.9 |
2.8% / 1.8% |
33.8% / 38.6% |
26.3 / 37.4 |
3 |
@LAC |
21 – 16 W |
6.1 |
53.3% / 52.9% |
6.7% / 3.9% |
0.0% / 2.0% |
7.4 / 6.3 |
33.3% / 60.9% |
38.1% / 17.4% |
3.9 / 5.1 |
51 / 74 |
51.3% / 53.4% |
45.1% / 55.4% |
42.1% / 27.5% |
5.9 / 5.9 |
0.0% / 4.1% |
41.2% / 31.1% |
37.8 / 24.6 |