Game Analysis

BUFFALO (-6.5) vs Arizona

• From week 10 onward last season, when Kyler Murray came back, Arizona’s offense ranked 9th in EPA/play. The Cardinals had the 3rd-highest success rate from any offense all season in week 17 in Philadelphia at 58.7%.
• Arizona’s offense lost left tackle DJ Humphries to a torn ACL in that Eagles game and replaced him with Jonah Williams for this season, which is a bit of a downgrade. Humphries ranked 14th in pass blocking efficiency on true sets while Williams ranked 31st last season.
• However, the Cardinals brought in Evan Brown to replace Elijah Wilkinson on the interior line which will be an upgrade. Brown conceded a 5% pressure rate last year compared to Wilkinson’s 9%.
• I understand the hype around top pick Marvin Harrison and think he’ll be much better than a typical rookie but he’s replacing Marquise Brown so the receiver group is unlikely to make a major improvement.
• Buffalo’s defense looks a lot different going into this season with the losses of S Micah Hyde, S Jordan Poyer, and CB Tre’Davious White. And LB Matt Milano is out with a bicep tear. The Bills surrendered a 52% pass success rate to running backs (31st) last season mostly due to the absence of Milano.
• Buffalo’s offense made an offensive coordinator switch halfway through last season. The Bills averaged 6.1 yppl under Ken Dorsey and just 5.4 yppl with Joe Brady calling the plays the second half of the season.
• Josh Allen’s rushing attempts nearly doubled under Brady, but I don’t see that sustaining. They were in a must-win situation every game down the stretch and they drafted a bruiser in RB Ray Davis to use when they get in close to preserve their star quarterback. RB James Cook was getting almost 6 more touches per game under Joe Brady, so he clearly likes to work the running backs.
• Buffalo’s offensive line is taking a downgrade after not retaining C Mitch Morse, who ranked 9th in pass-blocking efficiency.
• The Bills offense also loses WR Stefon Diggs, who made the Pro Bowl in every season in Buffalo. They will also be without WR Gabe Davis, who averaged 0.39 EPA/target last year (20th).
• The Bills brought in WR Curtis Samuel to replace those two guys. Samuel ranked 19th in yards per route run with Brady as his offensive coordinator in 2020.
• Arizona’s Nick Rallis is the youngest defensive coordinator in the league. The Cardinals had the 8th-highest zone coverage rate because he doesn’t have the talent to play man, but he did a lot of funky things – ranking 7th in our scheme uniqueness score.
• Unfortunately for Rallis, Arizona’s defense did not add any high end or even mid-tier talent this offseason. The only change of note is Sean Murphy-Bunting being a slight upgrade at cornerback over Antonio Hamilton.
• One of Arizona’s better pass rushers, BJ Ojulari, tore his ACL and will miss the season. They did take edge defender Darius Robinson in the first round but now he has a multi-week calf strain.
• This game looks like it will be playing with nearly 20 mph sustained winds, which could put a lid on both passing attacks. We have the conditions rated nearly a point worse for scoring than an average Bills home game.
• Our model makes Buffalo a 7.1-point favorite with a predicted total of 46.0. Arizona applies to a 71-28-3 ATS week 1 angle and I used the Cardinals in my spread pool.