Game Analysis

Lean – Under (41) – Arizona (+6) over ATLANTA

· I don’t think there’s much justification for Desmond Ridder being favored by more than the home field advantage in this game. Ridder hasn’t shown much in his first two starts, averaging just 4.6 yppp.

· Ridder has not had to diagnose a heavy blitzing scheme in the NFL yet but Cardinals defensive coordinator Vance Joseph has a 33% blitz rate (3rd) and I expect the rookie to struggle.

· Joseph’s defense has not faced a rookie quarterback this season, but they shut down Davis Mills last year when he was a rookie and averaged only 3.5 yppp against Arizona. Mills had a 44% success rate in 2021. Ridder currently has only a 40% success rate.

· Cardinals’ safety Budda Baker is out for the rest of the year with a fractured shoulder. Baker ranks 20th in coverage grade by PFF and is worth a half point. However, the loss of Baker won’t be magnified in this matchup as Atlanta’s offense ranks 2nd in the NFL with a 55% rushing play percentage.

· Arizona’s defense is surrendering a league-high 51% dropback success rate but just a 43% rush success rate (23rd). It is clear the Cardinals would rather have opponents be run heavy so this is a relatively good matchup for Arizona’s defense.

· Arizona quarterback Trace McSorley averaged 4.6 yppp and a 5.4% interception rate this season. I thought it was going to be Colt McCoy this week, as he was cleared to play, but the coaching staff has decided to give David Blough a start, and we rate Blough 2 points worse than McCoy. Blough will be without their top receiver DeAndre Hopkins, which is another blow to the offense.

· Blough should have protection as the Cardinals get healthier on the offensive line. LG Max Garcia ranks 9th in pass blocking efficiency since taking over as the starter in week 12 and he will limit Atlanta interior defender Grady Jarrett, who has 40 pressures (11th).

· The Falcons are allowing a league-high 47% rush success rate and I expect Arizona’s ground game to have plenty of running room.

· Our model favors the Falcons by just 4 points, with a predicted total of 38.3 points.