New Orleans Pelicans @ Orlando Magic Matchup Analysis

Dr Bob Analysis

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Opinion – New Orleans (+7) over ORLANDO

Rotation #503 – 4:05 pm Pacific

Anthony Davis is not expected to play tonight, which is why the line went from 3 ½ to 7 points but I still think there is value with the Pelicans here. New Orleans has been outscored by 7.7 points per 48 minutes in the 124 minutes this season that Davis has not been in the game but Orlando has been 9.4 points worse than an average team and I rate them at -8 points (I do expect some improvement). I think these teams are pretty equal with Davis sitting this game out and I had already decided to make the Pelicans a Best Bet at +3 ½ points when it was assumed Davis would play.

I’m guessing that the Pelicans’ will play with more defensive intensity in hopes of making up for being without their big man and the Pels should be able to limit an Orlando squad that has trouble scoring the basketball (dead last in FG% at 41.1%). The Magic also don’t defend the interior well enough (50.5% on 2-pointers allowed is 23^rd in the league) to force the Pelicans to shoot from the outside, which is something they’re not good at. Jrue Holiday is scheduled to play tonight for the first time all season for New Orleans and he should be able to get to the basket against the defenseless Magic. The Pelicans are also likely to improve on their very low 28.7% 3-point shooting is well outside of a reasonable range for an NBA team (worst in the league is usually around 32%). My ratings made this game a pick had Davis been playing and I don’t think Davis is worth any more than 4 points, especially considering the Pelicans have only been 0.5 points per 48 minutes worse without Davis on the floor than they’ve been when he’s been playing. There is still value with New Orleans but I’ll resist making the Pelicans a Best Bet.

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Team Stats
Game Log

New Orleans Pelicans
Orlando Magic

NOP

Avg

Def

Off

Efficiency 97.2 104.4 105.6
Pace 99.7 99.7 96.7

4
Factors

eFG % 46.0% 48.6% 49.6%
D reb % 77.4% 84.8% 76.8%
O reb % 15.2% 22.6% 23.2%
TO % 12.1% 14.9% 14.6%
Free Throw Rate 28.0% 28.8% 28.3%

Skill

2Pt % 47.6% 48.1% 49.1%
3Pt % 26.2% 33.6% 33.8%
3pt Rate 29.0% 29.7% 30.0%
Assist Rate 62.1% 59.2% 56.9%
Non-Steal Turnovers 4.2% 5.8% 6.1%
Foul Rate 22.0% 21.5% 21.9%

Hustle

2nd Chance Rate 9.1% 12.4% 12.8%
Steal Rate 9.2% 7.9% 8.5%
Block Rate 8.1% 4.5% 5.9%
Paint Points 44.0% 41.9% 42.3%
Fast Break 12.0% 12.8% 12.8%

GAME LOG					FOUR FACTORS				SKILL				HUSTLE
Date	Opp	Score	Efficiency	Pace	eFG %	Off rebound %	TO %	FT Rate	3pt Rate	Assist Rate	Non-Steal Turnover	Foul Rate	2nd Chance Rate	Steal Rate	Block Rate	Paint Points	Fast Break
2016-10-26	DEN	102 – 107 L	95.1 / 99.8	107.3	42.9% / 49.4%	9.6% / 27.5%	10.3% / 22.4%	28.3% / 39.8%	20.7% / 28.9%	81.6% / 48.6%	3.7% / 7.5%	27.0% / 20.5%	2.9% / 13.1%	14.9% / 6.5%	6.0% / 2.2%	49.0% / 46.7%	14.7% / 10.3%
2016-10-28	GSW	114 – 122 L	105.8 / 113.2	107.7	49.5% / 53.3%	23.1% / 19.6%	12.1% / 13.0%	23.0% / 30.8%	22.0% / 30.8%	61.7% / 72.7%	4.6% / 5.6%	22.3% / 20.4%	11.4% / 4.1%	7.4% / 7.4%	6.6% / 2.0%	54.4% / 44.3%	8.8% / 18.0%
2016-10-29	@SAS	79 – 98 L	84.4 / 104.7	93.6	39.5% / 48.2%	13.7% / 13.6%	9.6% / 9.6%	17.4% / 27.7%	25.6% / 28.9%	43.8% / 60.0%	3.2% / 3.2%	20.3% / 16.0%	13.9% / 13.3%	6.4% / 6.4%	6.0% / 8.1%	50.6% / 36.7%	10.1% / 12.2%
2016-11-01	MIL	113 – 117 L	110.8 / 114.7	102.0	49.4% / 53.8%	18.8% / 25.0%	12.7% / 14.7%	50.0% / 23.1%	31.7% / 35.2%	63.9% / 68.2%	3.9% / 2.0%	16.7% / 24.5%	10.6% / 10.3%	12.7% / 8.8%	5.5% / 6.1%	33.6% / 49.6%	13.3% / 8.5%
2016-11-02	@MEM	83 – 89 L	81.1 / 87.0	92.6	43.8% / 39.4%	11.4% / 25.5%	20.5% / 16.6%	19.8% / 21.3%	42.0% / 28.7%	56.7% / 60.6%	8.8% / 8.8%	25.4% / 21.5%	8.4% / 16.9%	7.8% / 11.7%	9.6% / 6.2%	38.6% / 38.2%	10.8% / 7.9%
2016-11-04	PHX	111 – 112 L	106.0 / 107.0	94.8	51.1% / 47.3%	14.8% / 24.5%	7.6% / 13.4%	29.8% / 30.1%	31.9% / 25.8%	65.1% / 45.0%	1.0% / 7.6%	20.1% / 25.8%	7.2% / 17.0%	5.7% / 6.7%	15.1% / 2.1%	37.8% / 35.7%	14.4% / 19.6%

GAME LOG					FOUR FACTORS				SKILL				HUSTLE
Date	Opp	Score	Efficiency	Pace	eFG %	Off rebound %	TO %	FT Rate	3pt Rate	Assist Rate	Non-Steal Turnover	Foul Rate	2nd Chance Rate	Steal Rate	Block Rate	Paint Points	Fast Break
2016-10-26	MIA	96 – 108 L	101.7 / 114.4	94.4	42.0% / 50.5%	28.0% / 34.8%	11.7% / 10.6%	31.8% / 16.5%	19.3% / 16.5%	58.8% / 57.4%	6.4% / 5.3%	15.9% / 23.3%	18.8% / 21.3%	5.3% / 5.3%	4.1% / 8.0%	37.5% / 68.5%	8.3% / 13.9%
2016-10-28	@DET	82 – 108 L	86.1 / 113.3	95.3	38.9% / 54.2%	24.1% / 23.1%	9.4% / 12.6%	12.6% / 6.3%	27.4% / 20.0%	60.6% / 56.3%	1.0% / 4.2%	13.6% / 11.5%	14.6% / 13.0%	8.4% / 8.4%	3.2% / 4.2%	43.9% / 55.6%	22.0% / 13.0%
2016-10-29	@CLE	99 – 105 L	102.6 / 108.8	96.5	50.0% / 47.2%	32.5% / 26.0%	20.7% / 9.3%	31.0% / 34.1%	33.3% / 42.0%	55.3% / 47.2%	12.4% / 3.1%	23.8% / 28.0%	25.3% / 14.3%	6.2% / 8.3%	5.7% / 7.1%	48.5% / 30.5%	8.1% / 6.7%
2016-11-01	@PHI	103 – 101 W	108.4 / 106.3	95.0	48.4% / 54.3%	25.5% / 20.6%	10.5% / 15.8%	18.3% / 19.5%	26.9% / 25.6%	69.0% / 70.0%	5.3% / 8.4%	15.8% / 21.1%	15.5% / 16.8%	7.4% / 5.3%	7.3% / 8.6%	58.3% / 39.6%	18.4% / 11.9%
2016-11-03	SAC	102 – 94 W	112.9 / 104.1	90.3	51.2% / 51.9%	31.7% / 26.2%	15.5% / 15.5%	27.4% / 21.3%	35.7% / 22.5%	63.2% / 44.7%	6.6% / 10.0%	15.5% / 25.5%	22.5% / 13.8%	5.5% / 8.9%	5.0% / 1.2%	37.3% / 53.2%	13.7% / 8.5%
2016-11-05	WAS	88 – 86 W	102.4 / 100.1	85.9	45.5% / 43.0%	22.2% / 29.8%	9.3% / 11.6%	34.6% / 19.8%	35.9% / 19.8%	67.7% / 32.4%	4.7% / 7.0%	18.6% / 26.8%	14.8% / 23.3%	4.7% / 4.7%	7.0% / 6.4%	36.4% / 41.9%	25.0% / 3.5%

New Orleans Pelicans @

Orlando Magic

Wed, Nov 16

FS-FL

4:00 PM Pacific

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