Los Angeles Lakers @

Dallas Mavericks

Tue, Mar 7
FS-SW
5:30 PM Pacific
Rotation: 703
Odds: Dallas Mavericks PK, Total:

Dr Bob Analysis

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Opinion – DALLAS (-9 ½) over L.A. Lakers

Rotation #704 – 5:35 pm Pacific

The Lakers are 0-4-1 ATS since trading away their best player Lou Williams and tonight they’re facing an underrated Mavericks team that is on a prolonged 18-6 ATS run that includes spread wins in their last 5 games. The Mavericks have been particularly good at home during that span (13-1 ATS) and they’re 6-0 ATS as a favorite. After struggling early in the season, and still possessing a bad 26-36 record, the Mavericks take no game for granted. Dallas has been a favorite of 6 points or more 3 times the last two months and they’ve won those games by 18 points over Philadelphia, by 32 points over Orlando and by 49 points over these Lakers when they had Lou Williams.

My ratings favor Dallas by 13 points tonight based on current rotations, which qualifies them as a line value play but unfortunately the Lakers apply to a 137-50-1 ATS contrary indicator that is based on the recent spread performances of these teams. I don’t want to go against that angle in a Best Bet but my NBA line value plays have performed much better than the NBA situations this season and line value plays have been really good when going against a significant situation (unfortunately, I’ve passed on most of those games). With that being the case I’ll still lean with Dallas at -10 points or less based on the line value.

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  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Los Angeles Lakers
  • Dallas Mavericks
LAL
Avg
Def
Off


  • Efficiency 107.2 113.4 109.2
  • Pace 97.4 97.4 95.8

4
Factors


  • eFG % 49.8% 53.6% 51.3%
  • D reb % 75.8% 74.6% 76.8%
  • O reb % 25.4% 24.2% 23.2%
  • TO % 14.8% 13.7% 13.9%
  • Free Throw Rate 26.9% 27.8% 27.6%


Skill


  • 2Pt % 48.8% 53.1% 50.2%
  • 3Pt % 34.8% 36.7% 35.7%
  • 3pt Rate 30.2% 32.0% 31.5%
  • Assist Rate 52.9% 60.3% 57.6%
  • Non-Steal Turnovers 6.0% 5.8% 5.9%
  • Foul Rate 21.2% 19.2% 20.8%


Hustle


  • 2nd Chance Rate 13.2% 12.5% 12.2%
  • Steal Rate 7.9% 8.8% 8.0%
  • Block Rate 4.5% 6.1% 5.7%
  • Paint Points 43.0% 42.9% 41.1%
  • Fast Break 13.4% 13.6% 12.4%
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