Houston Rockets @

Oklahoma City Thunder

Fri, Dec 9
ESPN
5:00 PM Pacific
Rotation: 711
Odds: Oklahoma City Thunder PK, Total:

Dr Bob Analysis

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**Houston (-1) over OKLAHOMA CITY

Rotation #711 – 5:05 pm Pacific

This play is simply a matter of line value, as Houston is a significantly better team than Oklahoma City. The Rockets were a good team at the beginning of the season and they’ve been even better since Patrick Beverley joined the lineup on November 17th after missing the first part of the season. Houston has outscored their opponents by an average of 5.3 points this season while playing a schedule that is 1.6 points tougher than average, and the Rockets are 8-3 ATS with Beverley in the lineup. The Thunder, meanwhile, have a scoring margin of +2.6 points against a schedule that is 0.1 points easier than average, so their average rating for the season (+2.5 points) is 4.4 points lower than Houston’s average rating of +6.9 points – and the Rockets are better with Beverley.

OKC has played their best basketball over their last 6 games (6-0 SU and ATS) but my ratings favor Houston by 4 ½ points based on current lineups and I still get the Rockets by 3 points using only games since November 25th, when the Thunder started their current 6 game win streak. I’ll take Houston in a 2-Star Best Bet at -2 or better.

Note: the line moved to -1.5 after releasing it to my subscribers this morning. I still would play Houston as a Best Bet up to -2.

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  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Houston Rockets
  • Oklahoma City Thunder
HOU
Avg
Def
Off


  • Efficiency 115.0 109.1 107.7
  • Pace 96.2 96.2 95.9

4
Factors


  • eFG % 55.0% 51.2% 50.5%
  • D reb % 77.5% 72.9% 76.8%
  • O reb % 27.1% 22.5% 23.2%
  • TO % 15.9% 13.8% 14.1%
  • Free Throw Rate 26.9% 26.8% 27.5%


Skill


  • 2Pt % 53.7% 50.2% 49.5%
  • 3Pt % 37.7% 35.8% 35.1%
  • 3pt Rate 43.5% 31.9% 31.1%
  • Assist Rate 62.1% 55.5% 57.3%
  • Non-Steal Turnovers 6.9% 5.8% 6.0%
  • Foul Rate 20.7% 19.7% 21.0%


Hustle


  • 2nd Chance Rate 13.3% 12.5% 12.7%
  • Steal Rate 7.9% 8.9% 8.1%
  • Block Rate 5.3% 5.6% 5.8%
  • Paint Points 42.2% 42.7% 41.1%
  • Fast Break 14.6% 11.9% 12.5%
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