Golden State Warriors @

Minnesota Timberwolves

Fri, Mar 10
NBA TV
5:00 PM Pacific
Rotation: 503
Odds: Minnesota Timberwolves PK, Total:

Dr Bob Analysis

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Opinion – MINNESOTA (+5) over Golden State

Rotation #504 – 5:05 pm Pacific

Minnesota has now covered the spread in 7 consecutive games and I like their current rotation without Zach LaVine who is injured and was dragging down the team when he was healthy. Golden State, meanwhile, is just 2-3 straight up and 1-4 ATS without Kevin Durant and I don’t think the line is being adjusted enough. While the Warriors are still great when Steph Curry is on the court, they are not as nearly as good when he’s resting since Durant is no longer on the court during those minutes. The Warriors’ bench is getting badly outplayed now and I don’t see Curry playing extra minutes tonight with a game in San Antonio tomorrow.

I think the line on this game should be Golden State by only 2 points but there are some situations that do favor the Warriors in this game. However, my line value plays, which are games my ratings project a significant difference from the line, have been profitable again this season while the situations have been horrible, which is why I struggled early in the season. I will still resist making this game a Best Bet because of a 118-45-6 ATS road favorite bounce-back angle that applies to Golden State (that angle is just 2-4 this year) but I will make the Timberwolves an opinion as I’ve done with other line value plays that have gone against significant situations lately (which have been mostly winners).

I also have 4 College Best Bets that start at 3 pm PT or later for just $25.

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  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Golden State Warriors
  • Minnesota Timberwolves
GSW
Avg
Def
Off


  • Efficiency 117.1 104.3 109.2
  • Pace 100.2 100.2 95.8

4
Factors


  • eFG % 57.0% 48.8% 51.3%
  • D reb % 76.5% 77.9% 76.8%
  • O reb % 22.1% 23.5% 23.2%
  • TO % 14.7% 14.2% 13.9%
  • Free Throw Rate 26.9% 26.4% 27.6%


Skill


  • 2Pt % 56.3% 49.0% 50.2%
  • 3Pt % 39.1% 32.3% 35.7%
  • 3pt Rate 36.0% 31.9% 31.5%
  • Assist Rate 70.7% 57.0% 57.6%
  • Non-Steal Turnovers 5.9% 4.9% 5.9%
  • Foul Rate 19.1% 19.8% 20.8%


Hustle


  • 2nd Chance Rate 10.7% 13.0% 12.2%
  • Steal Rate 9.3% 8.7% 8.0%
  • Block Rate 7.3% 4.4% 5.7%
  • Paint Points 39.9% 42.4% 41.1%
  • Fast Break 19.2% 12.7% 12.4%
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