Cleveland Cavaliers @

Golden State Warriors

Mon, Jan 16
TNT
5:00 PM Pacific
Rotation: 513
Odds: Golden State Warriors -8, Total:

Dr Bob Analysis

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Opinion – GOLDEN STATE (-8) over Cleveland

Rotation #514 – 5:05 pm Pacific

Cleveland’s 109-108 home win over the Warriors on Christmas day was not that impressive, as the Cavs only won by 1 point despite the Warriors having a bad shooting game from long range (just 9 of 30 on 3-pointers). Cleveland has an average 3-point defense (35.7% allowed) and Golden State makes 38.2% of their 3-point shots for the season, so that 1 point win would have been about a 5 or 6 point home loss if the Warriors shot their expected 3-point percentage in that game. There is no reason to believe that Golden State will struggle from long range again, especially at home (41.4% on 3-pointers at Oracle).

I think Cleveland has made a mistake acquiring Kyle Korver, who hurts their defense and takes minutes away from DeAndre Liggins, who is a great defender. Liggins is actually 3rd on the Cavaliers in plus-minus per 48 minutes at +10.3, behind on Kevin Love and LeBron James. Korver was a negative impact player in Atlanta and he already has a plus-minus of -25 points in just 68.4 minutes (-17.5 per 48) in 3 games with the Cavaliers. He’s obviously not going to be that bad going forward, but Korver getting 25 minutes, as he has the last two games, certainly makes the Cavaliers worse.

Golden State applies to a 118-45-3 ATS home favorite revenge situation but I was hoping for a lower price to pay. I’ll lean with Golden State at -8 and I’d take the Warriors in a 1-Star Best Bet at -7 or less.

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  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Cleveland Cavaliers
  • Golden State Warriors
CLE
Avg
Def
Off


  • Efficiency 113.3 108.1 108.9
  • Pace 96.1 96.1 95.7

4
Factors


  • eFG % 52.6% 51.3% 51.2%
  • D reb % 75.4% 75.6% 76.7%
  • O reb % 24.4% 24.6% 23.3%
  • TO % 13.9% 13.9% 14.0%
  • Free Throw Rate 30.0% 22.2% 27.4%


Skill


  • 2Pt % 49.6% 50.3% 50.0%
  • 3Pt % 38.2% 35.3% 35.8%
  • 3pt Rate 38.7% 32.5% 31.4%
  • Assist Rate 54.7% 60.8% 57.6%
  • Non-Steal Turnovers 6.3% 6.2% 6.0%
  • Foul Rate 18.7% 22.5% 20.8%


Hustle


  • 2nd Chance Rate 12.0% 12.9% 12.3%
  • Steal Rate 7.7% 7.6% 8.0%
  • Block Rate 4.6% 5.9% 5.7%
  • Paint Points 34.6% 40.8% 40.9%
  • Fast Break 12.0% 13.1% 12.4%
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