College Basketball

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2023-24 College Basketball Plays: 544-459-16 (Daily and Season Recap below)

2022-23 College Basketball Plays: 590-482-17

College Basketball Best Bets: 1992-1650-66 on a Star Basis for +171.5 Stars the last 7 seasons!

I have been very profitable on my College Basketball Best Bets over the years (+459.3 Stars the last 26 seasons) but starting with the 2020-21 season the College Basketball plays were based on a new model that tested incredibly well (832-636-29 for 56.7%) over the previous 4 seasons. The model was tested on seasons not used to derive the model to avoid back-fitting.

The first four seasons using that predictive matchup model produced good results on Best Bets (1109-904-34, 55.1%) despite being an unlucky 8-18-2 on games decided by overtime (instead of 17-9-2 on those games had they been graded at the end of regulation) and winning only 46% of the close games (143-166-34 on Best Bets decided by less than 3 points) instead of the 50% expected in the long run.

Had we won 50% of the close games and had those games altered due to OT (i.e. dogs not covering) produce the results they would have in regulation then we’d have been 56.1% winners the last four seasons, which is incredibly good in Basketball. The new model has won despite the bad luck – particularly in the last two seasons (+77.25 Stars on Best Bets) and I expect even better results in the future.

Last 4 Seasons with new matchup model: Best Bets are 1109-904-34 (55.1%) and Opinions are 894-772-27 (53.7%).

See season to date results below in the daily recap section.

2023-24 CBB Season Recap

The Lean on Connecticut was a winner in the Championship game.

Tournament Best Bets were 10-8 for -1.05 Stars, Tourney Opinions were 12-9, and NCAA Tournament Leans were 10-3. 

For the season, the Best Bets were 292-229-7 for +37.35 Stars and the Opinions were 252-230-9.

The Best Bets had another very profitable season despite being 0-5 on games decided due to overtime (instead of being 4-0-1 on those games had they been graded at the end of regulation). The Best Bets decided by less than 3 points were 35-34-7.

The Opinions were worse than their historical win percentage because of an unlucky 26-45-9 on bets decided by less than 3 points. The Opinions decided by OT were 9-8 (instead of 8-9). Had the close games been close to even the win percentage of the Opinions would have been 53.9%, which would have been close to the percentage of Opinions in the first 3 seasons with the matchup model.

Best Bet Sides (140-103-5 for +23.85 Stars)

Best Bet Totals (77-59 for +12.1 Stars)

Extra Game Best Bet Sides (43-36-2 for +3.35 Stars)

Extra Game Best Bet Totals (31-31 for -3.0 Stars)

NCAA Futures Best Bet (1-0 for +1.05 Stars)

Opinion Sides (127-133-6)

Opinion Totals (77-46-1)

Extra Game Opinion Sides (30-30-2)

Extra Game Opinion Totals (18-21)

2022-23 CBB Season Recap

It was a very profitable season with the Best Bets being +39.9 Stars of profit while the opinions added another 10.9 Stars if played for 0.5 Star each, as recommended.

For the season the Best Bets are 302-240-10 for +39.9 Stars and the Opinions are 288-242-7.

Best Bet Sides (155-127-8 for +15.25 Stars)

Best Bet Totals (68-55-1 for +9.45 Stars)

Extra Game Best Bet Sides: (57-44-1 for +8.55 Stars)

Extra Game Best Bet Totals (22-14 for +6.65 Stars)

Opinion Sides: (174-153-6)

Opinion Totals: (52-45-1)

Extra Game Opinion Sides: (50-35)

Extra Game Opinion Totals (12-9)