Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Wyoming (-16)  38   UNLV  16

UNLV has been consistently horrible through their first four games, as the Rebels’ line of scrimmage rating (point differential based on yardage and play differential, adjusted for site and strength of opponent) has been between -23.4 points and -19.1 points in all 4 of those games (relative to an average FBS team). UNLV has averaged only 308 yards at 4.4 yards per play while allowing 470 yards at 7.5 yppl despite facing a schedule of teams that is a bit below average.

Wyoming appears to be a bit underrated due to a 1-2 record and a 24-34 road loss against a below average Colorado State team in their most recent game. However, the Cowboys outgained CSU by 132 yards and would be projected to win that game by 9 points based on that stats. Their other loss was by just 3 points against a 5-0 Nevada team and beating Hawaii 31-7 is a solid performance.

Wyoming’s decent offense (0.2 yppl worse than average) should thrive against a UNLV defense that has allowed 34 points or more in every game and has been 1.7 yppl worse than average (7.5 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.8 yppl against an average team). Meanwhile, the Rebels’ pathetic offense (17.3 points per game and 4.4 yppl against teams that would allow 6.0 yppl to an average team) isn’t likely to hit their average points total against a solid Cowboys’ stop unit that is 0.1 yppl better than average and 0.3 yppl better than the average rating of the defensive units that UNLV has faced this season.

Wyoming is a Strong Opinion at -17 points or less.