Game Analysis

Note: This game was released to subscribers on Monday morning when the line was +7.  The line dropped to 6, which would be a Strong Opinion on Purdue.

1-Star Best Bet – *PURDUE (+7)  29   Wisconsin  28

We were lucky to win our bet on Wisconsin last week, as the Badgers gave up 474 total yards but benefited from a +6 turnover margin. The stats in that game project a win of just 1.7 points (the game closed with Wisky favored by 20.5 points). Wisconsin also failed to cover the spread in a 38-17 opening day win over a Buffalo team that has since lost as a big favorite to FCS team Fordham and lost by 28 points at home to Liberty.

In 3 games, Wisconsin has been below average offensively (6.4 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 6.8 yppl to an average FBS team) and only managed 5.3 yppl against a mediocre Washington State defense. The 6.9 yppl they averaged against Buffalo and Georgia Southern is really bad considering that Buffalo gave up 7.5 yppl to Fordham and Liberty and Georgia Southern surrendered 6.9 yppl to UAB, the only other FBS team that they faced.

Wisconsin’s defense was expected to be very good because they’ve always been very good. However, the former coaching staff had that unit performing significantly better than their talent level and that magic has not been transferred to the new coaching staff, as the Badgers have given up 5.2 yppl to a collection of teams that would combine to average only 5.1 yppl against an average defense.

Wisconsin is still being priced like a very good team but they’ve been average at best under the new coaching staff. I do expect Wisconsin to improve from the level they’ve played at so far, but not enough to justify being a touchdown favorite on the road against a Purdue team with a good quarterback. Hudson Card was a highly regarded prospect out of high school and he started at Texas before losing his job to Quinn Ewers. He’s come to Purdue and has averaged 6.9 yards per pass play in 3 games against a trio of teams with good pass defenses. Fresno is a bit better than average defending the pass and Virginia Tech and Syracuse have very good pass defenses. Wisconsin has a mediocre pass defense and I expect Card to move the ball effectively through the air. The Purdue ground game has been horrible thus far (4.1 yprp) but should improve given that Devin Mockobee ran for nearly 1000 yards at 5.0 ypr last season.

Purdue’s defense has not been good and overall, the Boilermakers have performed at the level of an average FBS team through 3 games with their new coaching staff. This play is about Wisconsin not being as good as the market perceives them to be (and as good as I thought they’d be). Purdue is a 1-Star Best Bet at +7 to -120 odds and a Strong Opinion down to +6 points.