Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *NEBRASKA (+10.5 -115)  21   Wisconsin  24

Nebraska coach Mickey Josephs says he’s seen more than enough from starting quarterback Casey Thompson in practice to declare him the starter. That’s good news for a Conhuskers’ offense that’s scored a total of 16 points is 2.5 games since Thompson was injured against Illinois.

Thompson has been 0.7 yards per pass play better than average and the Nebraska offense is 0.2 yppl better than average with him behind center. The value here, however, is with the Cornhuskers’ defense, which has improved dramatically since week 5 when the change in the defensive coordinator was made. Nebraska allowed nearly 600 yards per game at 7.1 yards per play in their first 3 games against FBS opponents and was responsible for Northwestern’s only win of the season. However, the Huskers’ defense has been 0.4 yppl better than average in 6 games since the coaching change, allowing just 5.4 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.8 yppl against an average defense. Wisconsin is nothing special offensively (0.6 yppl better than average) and the Badgers are projected to gain just 378 yards at 5.6 yppl in the windy conditions.

Nebraska’s offense will have to deal with the wind too, and the Badgers have a good defense (0.8 yppl better than average) but the Cornhuskers are still projected to gain a decent 313 yards at 5.0 yppl. Wisconsin is a better team than Nebraska, but the Cornhuskers are a better than average team on both sides of the ball right now with Thompson back at quarterback and there is value taking 10 points or more at home.

Nebraska is a 1-Star Best Bet at +10 -115 odds or better.