Game Analysis

Wisconsin (-4)  26   IOWA  17       

This game basically boils down to if Wisconsin is going to suffer a letdown or not following last week’s devastating overtime loss to #2 Ohio State. I have some situations that suggest a letdown is imminent, as Wisconsin applies to a negative 50-122-3 ATS situation that plays against teams coming off a close loss as a big underdog.

However, if Wisconsin plays their normal game (and Iowa does as well), then the Badgers should win this game by a touchdown or more. Iowa is average at best from the line of scrimmage, rating at 0.1 yppl better than average offensively (5.9 yppl against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average team) and the Hawkeyes have been 0.1 yppl worse than average on defense so far this season (5.3 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average only 5.2 yppl against an average team).

Being mediocre is not going to cut it against Wisconsin if the Badgers are emotionally ready to play, as Wisky is 0.3 yppl better than average offensively (5.4 yppl against teams that would allow just 5.1 yppl to an average team) and a very strong 1.2 yppl better than average defensively – surrendering only 15.2 points per game and 5.1 yppl to a schedule full of good offensive teams that would average 33.8 points and 6.3 yppl against an average stop unit.

Wisconsin should dominate the line of scrimmage and Iowa’s very good special teams won’t be enough to keep them within a touchdown – unless the Badgers are still focused on last week’s heartbreaking loss.