Game Analysis

Western Michigan (-6.5)  23   NORTHERN ILLINOIS  13

I’ve been on Western Michigan a few times for Best Bet wins, including last Tuesday night against Ohio. I don’t see quite as much value here, as the change at quarterback that NIU has made should help the Huskies in this matchup.

Northern Illinois turned to Jalen Macon to lead the offense and Macon threw just 4 passes (for 73 yards) while running the ball 12 times for 98 yards in a 45-3 win over a woeful UMass team. Macon has been a good runner throughout his career as a backup and sometimes starter (formerly at Arkansas-Pine Bluff), averaging 6.9 yards per rushing play, but his passing skills seem limited based on his career numbers at the FCS level (just 5.9 yards per pass play in his career). However, the passing probably won’t be any worse than the other NIU quarterbacks, who have been dismal through the air.

The offense won’t be nearly as successful tonight against a very good Western Michigan defense  that’s allowed just 18.4 points per game at 5.0 yppl (against teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average defense). The Broncos, however, are much better defending the pass (1.0 yppp better than average) than they are defending the run (0.1 yprp worse than average) and NIU may run the ball 80% of the time with Macon at quarterback. Last week it was 54 runs against just 8 passes for the Huskies but they’ll probably need to throw a bit more in this game since Western Michigan is likely to force more passing situations than the UMass defense did.

I still see some value on Western Michigan and a bit on the under (the extra running will lead to fewer plays), as my math favors the Broncos by 8 points. Western Michigan also applies to a 95-43-1 ATS triple-revenge favorite situation.