Game Analysis

Western Kentucky (-3.5)  37   UTSA  34

UTSA’s hopes of an unbeaten season ended last week with a 23-45 upset loss to North Texas and now they face a hot Western Kentucky team with revenge on their minds. UTSA won 52-45 at Western Kentucky back in week 6 but the Hilltoppers have won all 7 games since that day by an average of 26.4 points, including impressive wins over decent teams that last two weeks (52-17 over FAU and 53-21 at Marshall).

Western Kentucky’s offense has been great all season (43.3 ppg and 7.0 yards per play against teams that would allow 6.1 yppl to an average attack) but their defense has improved since allowing 670 yards to UTSA. Inserting D0minique Bradshaw into the starting lineup at one cornerback starting in week 8 (after he barely played the first 6 games) has improved the pass defense, as the Hilltoppers have been 0.3 yppp worse than average defending the pass for the season but have been 0.6 yppp better than average in their last 6 games (adjusted for facing Charlotte and MTSU backup quarterbacks). A lot of that is probably just variance, but Western Kentucky hasn’t allowed more than 21 points in any of their 7 games since giving up 52 to UTSA and I believe their defense is better with their current starting lineup.

UTSA is a bit better than average overall, as they’ve been 0.2 yppl better than average on offense and 0.1 yppl worse than average on defense and have a line of scrimmage rating of +0.4 points. Quarterback Frank Harris, like his counterpart Bailey Zappe, has a very low interception rate, which make the Roadrunners a few points better than average overall.

Western Kentucky’s defense is improved, which makes the Hilltoppers the better overall team, and playing in the perfect conditions of a domed stadium is an advantage for Western Kentucky’s pass-heavy offense but I don’t see any value in this game.