Western Kentucky @

Old Dominion

Sat, Oct 16
12:30 PM Pacific
Rotation: 187
Odds: Old Dominion +12.5, Total: 67

Game Analysis

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1-Star Best Bet – *Western Kentucky (-12.5)  40   OLD DOMINION  19

Western Kentucky’s offense has been underrated all season and their games have gone over the total so far this season. That over streak is in jeopardy but the Hilltoppers are finally facing a team that won’t take advantage of their shaky defense.

Old Dominion is one of the worst offensive teams in the nation, ranking third from the bottom in compensated yards per play (just 4.0 yppl against teams that would allow 5.9 yppl to an average team). Western Kentucky’s defense is 0.7 yppl worse than average (6.3 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average defense) but that unit has a huge edge in this game and ODU averaged just 4.4 yppl in games against Buffalo and UTEP, the two bad defensive teams that they faced, and those teams are 0.2 yppl worse, on average, than Western Kentucky’s defense. My math model projects just 4.3 yppl for the Monarchs dismal offense in this game, accounting for the wind and rain that is expected.

Western Kentucky’s prolific offense has averaged 40.4 points per game on 544 yards at 7.5 yppl despite facing a schedule of better than average defensive teams that would combine to allow just 5.5 yppl to an average offense. Old Dominion does have a good defense, as the Monarchs have yielded just 5.3 yppl to teams that would average 6.0 yppl against an average team, but they’ve given up 34 points per game because their offense puts their defense in bad field position. The wind and rain will affect the Hilltoppers’ pass-heavy attack more than it will affect ODU’s offense, but that’s been factored into my math model, and I project 40 points on 502 total yards at 6.5 yppl for WKU in this game.

Western Kentucky is eager for a win after a number of close losses against good teams (lost by an average margin of 3.7 points to Army, Indiana, and UTSA), so they won’t be taking this game lightly. Motivation is half the battle for big road favorites facing bad teams and road favorites of more than 7 points that are 2 games or more below .500 are 55% ATS since 1980, including 30-14 ATS since 2015. Western Kentucky is a 1-Star Best Bet at -13.5 or less (Strong Opinion at -14).

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Western Kentucky
  • Old Dominion


  • Run Plays 22.4 41.6
  • Run Yards 102.8 223.4
  • YPRP 4.6 5.4


  • Pass Comp 34.4 21.8
  • Pass Att 48.8 34.2
  • Comp % 70.5% 63.7%
  • Pass Yards 449.4 268.8
  • Sacks 1.4 1.0
  • Sack Yards 8.6 7.4
  • Sack % 2.8% 2.8%
  • Pass Plays 50.2 35.2
  • Net Pass Yards 440.8 261.4
  • YPPP 8.8 7.4


  • Total Plays 72.6 76.8
  • Total Yards 543.6 484.8
  • YPPL 7.5 6.3


  • Int 0.6 0.4
  • Int % 1.2% 1.2%
  • Fumbles 0.4 0.6
  • Turnovers 1.0 1.0
  • Points 40.4 38.4
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