Game Analysis

Note: There are rumors that Western Kentucky may be without their starting quarterback, which is why this line has gone up to 5.5 points.

Lean – LOUISIANA TECH (-3 -115)  31   Western Kentucky  24

The strength of Western Kentucky’s team is their offense, which is decent by CUSA standards but rates at 0.4 yards per play worse than average on a national scale (6.1 yppl against teams that would allow 6.5 yppl to an average FBS team). Louisiana Tech’s strength is their defense, which has been 0.1 yppl better than average on a national scale (5.2 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.3 yppl against an average team) while allowing just 17.2 points per game.

When the Bulldogs have the ball it will be weakness versus weakness, as Louisiana Tech is offensively challenged (1.2 yppl worse than average) while the Hilltoppers are horrendous defensively (1.1 yppl worse than average).

Louisiana Tech is a better team from the line of scrimmage, is better in special teams (despite the Hilltoppers’ elite kicker), and is projected to have a +1.0 turnover advantage (WKU throws the ball a lot an Louisiana Tech has a ball-hawking secondary).

Louisiana Tech would be a Lean at -3 or less.