Game Analysis
Georgia State (-3.5) 26 Western Kentucky 21
This game comes down to how many points Western Kentucky’s feeble offense can score against a decent Georgia State defense. The Hilltoppers have a good defense that’s allowed just 25.5 points per game and rated at 0.3 yards per play better than average (5.3 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average team) and that unit should limit a sub-par Georgia State attack that’s averaged 5.7 yppl this season against teams that would combine to allow 6.1 yppl to an average team.
The issue with Western Kentucky is once again their horrible offense. The coaching staff brought in former Maryland quarterback Ty Pigrome to try to spruce things up but the Hilltoppers’ receivers can’t get open down the field (just 9.2 yards per completion is among the worst in the nation) and Pigrome has averaged only 4.6 yards per pass play despite facing teams that would allow 7.2 yppp to an average quarterback. Pigrome obviously doesn’t force the ball down the field and he takes off running when nobody is open underneath (413 rush yards at 5.7 yards a pop). That has resulted in zero interceptions thrown by Pigrome this season. Overall, Western Kentucky has been 1.6 yards per play worse than average offensively this season (4.7 yppl against teams that would allow 6.3 yppl) and Georgia State’s defense has been pretty solid this season in allowing 5.7 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average defensive team.
Overall, my math favors Georgia State by 5 points in what could be a lower scoring game than I project and CUSA teams (Western Kentucky’s conference) have yet to win or cover the spread in 4 bowl games while Sun Belt teams have two blowout wins to their credit (Appalachian State by 28 points and Georgia Southern by 35 points – both against CUSA teams).
- Western Kentucky
- Georgia St.
Rush
-
Run Plays
30.0
36.9
-
Run Yards
131.5
176.9
-
YPRP
4.9
5.2
Pass
-
Pass Comp
17.5
14.9
-
Pass Att
31.1
28.1
-
Comp %
56.3%
53.0%
-
Pass Yards
164.5
178.1
-
Sacks
2.2
2.1
-
Sack Yards
14.1
14.0
-
Sack %
6.6%
7.0%
-
Pass Plays
33.3
30.2
-
Net Pass Yards
150.4
164.1
-
YPPP
4.5
5.4
Total
-
Total Plays
63.3
67.1
-
Total Yards
296.0
355.0
-
YPPL
4.7
5.3
TO
-
Int
0.2
0.5
-
Int %
0.6%
1.8%
-
Fumbles
0.8
0.4
-
Turnovers
1.0
0.9
Rush
-
Run Plays
41.5
32.6
-
Run Yards
191.3
140.3
-
YPRP
4.8
5.0
Pass
-
Pass Comp
18.1
24.4
-
Pass Att
30.7
38.2
-
Comp %
59.0%
63.9%
-
Pass Yards
228.3
285.8
-
Sacks
1.2
3.3
-
Sack Yards
7.8
20.9
-
Sack %
3.8%
8.0%
-
Pass Plays
31.9
41.6
-
Net Pass Yards
220.6
264.9
-
YPPP
6.9
6.4
Total
-
Total Plays
73.3
74.1
-
Total Yards
419.7
426.1
-
YPPL
5.7
5.7
TO
-
Int
1.0
1.1
-
Int %
3.3%
2.9%
-
Fumbles
1.1
0.9
-
Turnovers
2.1
2.0
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2020 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
09/12/20 @ Louisville |
21-35 |
+12.0
L
|
32/36 |
141/165 |
4.4/4.6 |
1/1 |
10/19 |
23/34 |
107/339 |
0/1 |
3/1 |
4.1/9.7 |
248/504 |
4.3/7.1 |
09/19/20 Liberty |
24-30 |
-14.5
L
|
28/56 |
106/370 |
3.8/6.6 |
0/0 |
18/13 |
25/21 |
193/126 |
0/0 |
0/1 |
7.7/5.7 |
299/496 |
5.6/6.4 |
10/03/20 @ Middle Tenn St |
20-17 |
-7.0
L
|
32/30 |
161/124 |
5.0/4.1 |
1/0 |
21/23 |
36/33 |
166/195 |
0/0 |
3/3 |
4.3/5.4 |
327/319 |
4.6/4.8 |
10/10/20 Marshall |
14-38 |
+7.0
L
|
23/40 |
90/197 |
3.9/4.9 |
3/0 |
21/16 |
39/22 |
173/146 |
0/0 |
1/1 |
4.3/6.3 |
263/343 |
4.2/5.4 |
10/17/20 @ UAB |
14-37 |
+13.5
L
|
27/32 |
118/228 |
4.4/7.1 |
2/1 |
16/15 |
35/31 |
128/132 |
2/1 |
5/2 |
3.2/4.0 |
246/360 |
3.7/5.5 |
10/24/20 Chattanooga |
13-10 |
0.0
W
|
30/40 |
133/153 |
4.4/3.8 |
2/0 |
16/9 |
25/23 |
117/77 |
0/0 |
2/2 |
4.3/3.1 |
250/230 |
4.4/3.5 |
10/31/20 @ BYU |
10-41 |
+29.0
L
|
31/30 |
163/184 |
5.3/6.1 |
1/0 |
19/21 |
31/37 |
109/244 |
0/1 |
2/0 |
3.3/6.6 |
272/428 |
4.3/6.4 |
11/07/20 @ Florida Atl. |
6-10 |
+7.0
W
|
26/41 |
107/189 |
4.1/4.6 |
0/0 |
19/7 |
40/17 |
150/84 |
0/1 |
1/4 |
3.7/4.0 |
257/273 |
3.8/4.4 |
11/14/20 Southern Miss |
10-7 |
-8.0
L
|
37/31 |
158/184 |
4.3/5.9 |
0/0 |
19/6 |
30/14 |
163/37 |
0/0 |
3/6 |
4.9/1.9 |
321/221 |
4.6/4.3 |
11/21/20 FIU |
38-21 |
-7.5
W
|
29/42 |
191/132 |
6.6/3.1 |
0/1 |
14/14 |
25/37 |
99/133 |
0/1 |
3/2 |
3.5/3.4 |
290/265 |
5.1/3.3 |
12/06/20 @ Charlotte |
37-19 |
+2.0
W
|
35/31 |
221/136 |
6.3/4.4 |
0/1 |
18/15 |
27/35 |
216/205 |
0/0 |
1/1 |
7.7/5.7 |
437/341 |
6.9/5.1 |
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2020 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
09/19/20 UL Lafayette |
31-34 |
+15.0
W
|
50/38 |
244/254 |
4.9/6.7 |
1/0 |
22/21 |
39/37 |
179/264 |
1/2 |
2/1 |
4.4/6.9 |
423/518 |
4.6/6.8 |
10/03/20 East Carolina |
49-29 |
-2.0
W
|
44/22 |
247/68 |
5.6/3.1 |
1/0 |
18/30 |
28/52 |
238/225 |
2/3 |
0/4 |
8.5/4.0 |
485/293 |
6.7/3.8 |
10/15/20 @ Arkansas St. |
52-59 |
+3.5
L
|
40/31 |
290/89 |
7.3/2.9 |
1/1 |
18/40 |
35/57 |
314/524 |
0/0 |
0/5 |
9.0/8.5 |
604/613 |
8.1/6.6 |
10/24/20 @ Troy |
36-34 |
+2.5
W
|
54/16 |
215/63 |
4.0/3.9 |
2/2 |
20/32 |
30/48 |
161/384 |
1/2 |
1/3 |
5.2/7.5 |
376/447 |
4.4/6.7 |
10/31/20 Coastal Carolina |
0-51 |
+3.5
L
|
25/46 |
90/252 |
3.6/5.5 |
1/1 |
7/21 |
12/29 |
25/282 |
1/0 |
3/0 |
1.7/9.7 |
115/534 |
2.9/7.1 |
11/07/20 UL Monroe |
52-34 |
-18.0
T
|
49/21 |
254/121 |
5.2/5.8 |
1/2 |
20/26 |
32/42 |
241/301 |
0/1 |
0/6 |
7.5/6.3 |
495/422 |
6.1/6.1 |
11/14/20 @ Appalachian State |
13-17 |
+17.5
W
|
35/43 |
168/148 |
4.8/3.4 |
1/0 |
11/19 |
33/26 |
127/166 |
0/1 |
3/3 |
3.5/5.7 |
295/314 |
4.2/4.4 |
11/21/20 @ South Alabama |
31-14 |
-3.5
W
|
44/30 |
218/153 |
5.0/5.1 |
1/1 |
19/25 |
28/43 |
334/168 |
3/0 |
0/7 |
11.9/3.4 |
552/321 |
7.7/4.0 |
11/28/20 Georgia Southern |
30-24 |
-2.0
W
|
32/46 |
66/303 |
2.1/6.6 |
1/1 |
28/6 |
39/10 |
366/70 |
1/1 |
2/1 |
8.9/6.4 |
432/373 |
5.9/6.5 |