Game Analysis

Lean – Georgia State (+6 ½)  24   Western Kentucky  28

Georgia State should be pretty fired up to garner the school’s first ever bowl victory and I question if Western Kentucky’s players will be that excited about this minor bowl game after a disappointing 6-6 campaign that followed two seasons in which they won 23 total games under former coach Jeff Brohm. But, even if both teams are equally motivated I still favor the Panthers getting points.

These two teams are both among the worst in the nation running the football and I don’t expect either to run the ball well in this game (3.4 yprp projected for Western Kentucky and just 3.6 yprp projected for Georgia State). That will leave the outcome of this game in the hands of two experienced senior quarterbacks – Mike White (W. KY) and Conner Manning (Geo St). Both quarterbacks should end their college careers on a positive note, as neither team can defend the pass. Mike White (6.3 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 7.2 yppp to an average quarterback) faced a Georgia State defense that is 1.3 yppp worse than average (6.6 yppp allowed to quarterbacks that would average 5.3 yppp against an average defense) while Manning takes on a Hilltoppers’ secondary that is 1.5 yppp worse than average (6.4 yppp allowed to quarterbacks that would average just 4.9 yppp). Georgia State is projected to have an edge in the aerial game, averaging 7.3 yppp to Western Kentucky’s 7.0 yppp, but the Hilltoppers are likely to throw the ball more often and Mike White is very careful with the football (just 7 interceptions on 521 pass attempts).

The math model projects Western Kentucky to have a small edge in total yards (410 yards at 5.7 yards per play to 395 yards at 5.5 yppl) but the Hilltooppers have an edge in projected turnovers and have better special teams. But, it’s not enough to justify a nearly full touchdown spread, as the numbers all add up to my math model favoring Western Kentucky by just 4 ½ points. I’ll lean with Georgia State at +6 or more and I have no opinion on the total (the math projects 52.5 total points).