Game Analysis

Ohio State (-6.5)  32   Washington  25

Ohio State has looked very good in their last two games, beating Michigan 62-39 and beating Northwestern 45-24 in the Big 10 Championship game. However, people seem to be forgetting about the 1-6 ATS run in the 7 games prior to those two good performances. My math model does not. Actually, the math picks this game right at the number, favoring Ohio State by 6.3 points. I do expect a good effort from the Buckeyes in Urban Meyer’s final game as head coach and Meyer’s history when he’s had more than a week to prepare over his career (36-13-1 ATS) and his record against non-conference opponents (52-19-2 ATS) would have me leaning their way in this game if not for a 48-18 ATS bowl angle that plays on underdogs of 4 points or more that have an advantage in defensive scoring average of 5.5 points or more, as Washington does.

Washington is a balanced team that is good on offense (0.8 yards per play better than average) and even better on the defensive side of the ball (1.3 yppl better than average). Ohio State, meanwhile, has an elite offense that averages 6.9 yppl and rates at 1.6 yppl better than average with Dwayne Haskins at quarterback but is 0.1 yppl worse than average defensively (6.0 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.8 yppl against an average defense). The biggest problem for Ohio State’s defense is big plays and they could be pretty good if they can fix that issue.

The math projects Ohio State with 450 yards at 6.0 yppl and Washington with 423 yards at 6.7 yppl. Ohio State is projected to have 11 more offensive plays, which is the case because their defense does have a lot of short possession, either from 3-and-outs or from giving up a big play and over the course of the season the Buckeyes have run 174 more plays than their opponents. The Buckeyes also have elite special teams units that add some points to their side of the ledger and overall I get Ohio State by 6.3 points and 61.1 total points. I’m going to shave a few points off of the total because this game applies to a 33-8 bowl game Under situation that plays against teams off 3 straight overs and a 33-11-1 Under angle that plays under in bowl games involving a team that averages over 40 points per game and is facing a good defensive team. I’ll pass on both the side and the total.