Wake Forest vs

Wisconsin

at Charlotte
Wed, Dec 30
9:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 311
Odds: Wisconsin -10, Total: 51.5

Game Analysis

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Wisconsin (-10)  30   Wake Forest  20

The line on this game went up with the news that Wisconsin quarterback Graham Mertz would play and having star running back Jalen Berger back for this game is just as important. Berger is a consistently good runner that averaged 5.9 yards per rush in his 3 games despite not having a run longer than 23 yards. The other running backs combined for just 4.2 ypr despite facing worse run defenses and having Berger back should restore Wisconsin’s ball-control rushing attack and put less pressure on Mertz, who hasn’t been as good without receivers Kendric Pryor and Danny Davis, who have played a combined 5 games. Pryor and Davis combined for 197 yards on 20 targets and that production has been replaced by a group of receivers averaging about 7 yards per target. Wisconsin’s offense was 0.3 yards per play worse than average in the regular season and the return of Berger and the absence of Pryor, Davis, and C Lytles is a wash. Wake Forest is average defensively and I project 403 total yards at a modest 5.6 yppl for the Badgers.

The Wake Forest offense is below average on a yards per play basis, averaging 5.5 yppl against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team, but quarterback Sam Hartman has only thrown 1 interception in 8 games this season and has had a low interception rate over his career (projected at just 0.5 interceptions in this game). Wisconsin has a very good defense that defends the run and the pass well and has been 1.0 yppl better than average overall (4.9 yppl against teams that would average 5.9 yppl) while forcing a lot of 3-and-outs (just 54 plays per game allowed) and giving up only 15.7 points per game. The Demon Deacons are projected to average only 4.7 yppl and to score 20 points.

Overall, the math favors Wisconsin by 10 points and I have no opinion on the side or total on this game.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Wake Forest
  • Wisconsin
WF
Offense
Defense

Rush

  • Run Plays 38.9 37.1
  • Run Yards 155.7 207.9
  • YPRP 4.6 6.1




Pass





  • Pass Comp 19.3 22.4
  • Pass Att 33.9 34.0
  • Comp % 57.0% 66.0%
  • Pass Yards 262.4 273.0
  • Sacks 3.6 2.3
  • Sack Yards 22.6 17.4
  • Sack % 9.5% 6.3%
  • Pass Plays 37.4 36.3
  • Net Pass Yards 239.9 255.6
  • YPPP 6.4 7.0

Total

  • Total Plays 76.3 73.4
  • Total Yards 418.1 480.9
  • YPPL 5.5 6.5

TO


  • Int 0.1 1.4
  • Int % 0.4% 4.2%
  • Fumbles 0.3 0.3
  • Turnovers 0.4 1.7
 
  • Points 37.0 31.6
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