Wake Forest @

Clemson

Sat, Nov 20
ESPN
9:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 361
Odds: Clemson -4, Total: 56.5

Game Analysis

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2-Star Best Bet – Clemson Team Total Under (30.5 -115)

Alternate play is 1-Star on Wake Forest (+4) at +3 or more

Wake Forest (+4)  26   CLEMSON  22

Rotation #361 – 9 am Pacific

Clemson has gone over their team total legitimately just one time all season, as they needed fluke defensive TD on the final play to go over against Florida State three weeks ago and even their 30 points against Louisville (their one legit TT over) was bit fortunate given that the Tigers averaged only 5.3 yards per play and accumulated just 347 total yards.

Last week against a horrible Connecticut defense the Tigers managed just 4.6 yards per play despite throwing the ball 57 times. The aerial attack has been bad all season (just 4.9 yards per pass play in FBS games) and it was relatively worse last week without their only great receiver Joseph Ngata, who has averaged 19.0 yards per reception and 9.7 yards per pass targeted at him, which is significantly better than the rest of the Clemson wide receivers, who have combined to average only 10.8 ypc and 6.0 yards per target. The Tigers are now also going to be without leading receiver Justyn Ross, who has a relatively good 7.1 yards per target average. The 4 wide receivers that are likely to play this week have combined for just 5.5 yards per target, which results in a difference of 0.8 yards per pass play when replacing the production of Ngata and Ross. In two games without Ngata the Tigers have averaged only 5.3 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 7.6 yppp to an average team and that -2.3 yppp rating is 0.9 yppp worse than the team’s average rating for the season (4.9 yppp against FBS opponents that would allow 6.3 yppp). So, an adjustment of -0.8 yppp is certainly reasonable with Ross joining Ngata on the sideline.

Wake Forest is average defensively (5.8 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.8 yppl) but the Demon Deacons have held the 3 worse than average offensive teams that they’ve faced to 10 points, 16 points, and 7 points and Clemson is projected to score just 22 points in this game.

The fact that Clemson’s team total is above 30 is ridiculous given that the only two games in which they’ve score more than 30 points was against FBS team South Carolina State and last week against a horrible Connecticut defense. Clemson’s offense continues to be the most overrated unit in the nation and my math model likes Wake Forest to win this game.

I will once again choose to play the Tigers’ team total under because all of the value in this game is due to Clemson’s offense being so bad (0.7 yards per play worse than average) and well under what the market has them priced at. The Clemson Team Total is a 2-Star Best Bet Under 30 or more and 1-Star down to 28.5 points.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Wake Forest
  • Clemson
WF
Offense
Defense

Rush

  • Run Plays 37.9 38.1
  • Run Yards 191.9 211.4
  • YPRP 5.1 5.5




Pass





  • Pass Comp 21.5 19.1
  • Pass Att 35.8 32.5
  • Comp % 60.1% 58.8%
  • Pass Yards 325.4 229.1
  • Sacks 1.6 2.7
  • Sack Yards 8.6 14.9
  • Sack % 4.3% 7.7%
  • Pass Plays 37.4 35.2
  • Net Pass Yards 316.8 214.2
  • YPPP 8.5 6.1

Total

  • Total Plays 75.3 73.3
  • Total Yards 508.7 425.6
  • YPPL 6.8 5.8

TO


  • Int 0.8 1.0
  • Int % 2.2% 3.1%
  • Fumbles 0.3 1.1
  • Turnovers 1.1 2.1
 
  • Points 44.7 29.1
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