(20) Virginia @

Miami Fla

Fri, Oct 11
5:00 PM Pacific
Rotation: 109
Odds: Miami Fla -2, Total: 43

Game Analysis

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MIAMI-FLORIDA (-2)  22   Virginia  21

Miami is turning to quarterback N’Kosi Perry to lead the team after he sparked the offense last week with 383 yards on 53 pass plays in the 35-42 loss to Virginia Tech. Perry’s compensated performance in that game was pretty much the same as the compensated numbers for Jarren Williams, but Perry was really, really bad last season (just 51% completions and 4.7 yards per pass play) and it’s hard to say if he’s that much improved in the new system. I guess we’ll see, but Perry figures to be running around rather than looking for receivers down the field, as Miami’s horrible offensive line (25 sacks allowed in 4 games against FBS team) has no chance against Bronco Mendenhall’s defense, which averages 4.4 sacks per game and allows just 4.8 yards per pass play (against quarterbacks that would average 6.2 yppp against an average defense). Miami would have more success running the ball but the Hurricanes have only run it on 38% of their plays against FBS teams this season and may not be willing to change.

Virginia’s offense is pretty average, gaining 5.5 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average attack, and Miami has been 0.5 yppl better than average so far. Miami does give up too many big pass plays in their aggressive scheme but Virginia quarterback Bryce Perkins isn’t one to take advantage of Miami’s press coverage, as he’s more inclined to look for underneath receivers (66.5% completions but just 10.6 yards per completion). That’s exactly the stuff that Miami takes away (the Hurricanes have allowed just 54% completions in FBS games).

I don’t think the matchup is good for either offense and my math model favors Miami by 0.5 points with a total of 42.5 points after adjusting for the bad weather that’s expected tonight.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Virginia
  • Miami Fla
VIRG
Offense
Defense

Rush

  • Run Plays 34.4 31.8
  • Run Yards 149.9 146.4
  • YPRP 4.8 5.2




Pass





  • Pass Comp 19.1 14.7
  • Pass Att 28.9 28.7
  • Comp % 65.9% 51.3%
  • Pass Yards 215.3 176.4
  • Sacks 2.5 2.7
  • Sack Yards 16.2 17.5
  • Sack % 8.0% 8.5%
  • Pass Plays 31.4 31.3
  • Net Pass Yards 199.1 158.9
  • YPPP 6.3 5.1

Total

  • Total Plays 65.9 63.2
  • Total Yards 365.2 322.8
  • YPPL 5.5 5.1

TO


  • Int 0.8 1.3
  • Int % 2.8% 4.6%
  • Fumbles 0.8 0.1
  • Turnovers 1.6 1.5
 
  • Points 32.2 21.4
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