Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Over (65.5) – TENNESSEE (-3)  41   Vanderbilt  34

Lean – Tennessee (-3)

I don’t understand the total on this game (65.5 points).

Tennessee’s games have averaged 68.1 total points in regulation even with lower scoring in the 4th quarter of a few blowout wins. The average scoring using the first 3 quarters, extrapolated to a full game would be 70.8 total points per game and that’s reasonable given that there isn’t likely to be any garbage time in this game.

Vanderbilt’s games have averaged 60.0 points in regulation, which is 8 more than the national average of 52 points per game in regulation. So, it makes no sense that the total on this game would be lower than Tennessee’s average total points per game given that they’re facing a team that has had significantly higher scoring games than normal.

Tennessee has averaged 38.3 points per game in regulation in 10 games against FBS opponents (and would have more if they didn’t take their foot off the pedal in the 4th quarter in a few games). Those FBS teams combine to rate at 0.3 yards per play better than average defensively and Vanderbilt rates at 0.2 yppl better than average after adjusting for them having 28 pass plays against South Carolina’s backup quarterback and 24 pass plays against Missouri’s backup quarterback (and 15 pass plays against Utah State’s backup QB). Tennessee has averaged their 38.3 points per game in regulation on 474 total yards per game and my math model projects 543 total yards for the Volunteers in this game in what is expected to be very still conditions in Knoxville during this game (1 mph winds), which adds 2.3 points to the projected total for this game. Projecting Tennessee to top 40 points is certainly not a stretch given they’ve averaged 38.3 points against defenses that are a bit better than Vanderbilt’s defense and will be playing in near perfect scoring conditions.

Vanderbilt’s offense has also been elite, as the Commodores have averaged 37.6 points per game in regulation against FBS opponents on 454 yards and 7.5 yards per play this season while facing teams that would combine to allow 5.3 yppl to an average attack. Tennessee’s defense is 0.3 yppl better than the average of teams that Vandy has faced but the Volunteers also play at a fast pace, and the Commodores are expected to have a few more plays than normal because of it. The math model projects 452 total yards at 7.2 yppl for Vandy in this game, which is about the same total yards as their average. Vandy should score a bit less than their 37.6 points per game average, which is not a stretch given that Tennessee, because of their fast pace, has allowed 31 points or more in 6 of their 7 games against SEC opponents and Vanderbilt has the best offense that they’ve faced this season.

My math favors Tennessee by 5.7 points and the Volunteers apply to a 170-93-9 ATS situation that plays on the home team in games between two high-scoring teams.

The Over is a Strong Opinion at 67 points or less.