Vanderbilt @

South Carolina

Sat, Oct 16
SEC Network
1:00 PM Pacific
Rotation: 137
Odds: South Carolina -18, Total: 51

Game Analysis

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1-Star Best Bet – *SOUTH CAROLINA (-18)  35   Vanderbilt  8

Note: Vanderbilt’s 2 year starting quarterback Ken Seals is out with a finger injury and backup Mike Wright has been horrible in relief the last two seasons. Vandy’s offense projects to be a couple of points worse with Wright at quarterback and you can now play South Carolina as a 1-Star Best Bet up to -20 points.

South Carolina’s offense has been an issue this season and is a concern laying so many points in this game, but the Gamecocks are projected to gain over 400 yards at 6.5 yards per play in this game and their defense will dominate a horrible Vandy offense.

Vanderbilt has averaged only 13.3 points per game and 4.3 yards per play against a schedule of teams that would combine to allow 5.5 yppl to an average team. The Commodores have been held to 3 points or fewer in 3 of their 6 games and they’ve managed just 10 points per game if you take out the 30 points that they scored against a horrendous UConn defense. Those 5 teams other than Connecticut would allow 5.2 yppl to an average FBS offense and South Carolina’s defense would allow just 4.9 yppl at home to an average offense – so my math model project of 10 points for Vandy is certainly reasonable.

South Carolina’s offense has managed just 22 points per game and only 17.2 points per game against FBS opponents but the Gamecocks are only 0.3 yppl worse than average offensively (4.7 yppl against FBS teams that would allow 5.0 yppl to an average team) while Vanderbilt’s defense has allowed an average of 36 points and 7.0 yppl to a slate of opposing offenses that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average team. South Carolina’s offense, at home, is only 0.1 yppl worse than the average offense that the Commodores have faced, so scoring 35 points in this game is reasonable. South Carolina has faced two other bad defensive teams (although not as bad as Vandy’s defense) and the Gamecocks averaged 33 points in those games against Eastern Illinois and East Carolina with a backup quarterback that was activated from the coaching staff. Luke Doty, who was not available early in the season, took over in week 3 but he’s faced a collection of strong defensive teams and will enjoy taking on Vandy’s horrible pass defense (8.1 yards per pass play allowed to quarterbacks that would average only 6.2 yppp against an average defense).

I mentioned that my concern with following the math and making this play was playing a bad offense to cover a big number. That prompted me to look up how had trouble scoring have done historically laying a big number at home and what I found has subdued my concern. Home favorites of 16 points or more that have averaged fewer than 20 points per game through their first 5 or more games against FBS opponents (S. Carolina has averaged only 17.2 ppg vs FBS teams) are 62-40-1 ATS (47-28-1 ATS in conference games). I’ll go with the math and will play South Carolina as a 1-Star Best Bet at -20 points or less.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Vanderbilt
  • South Carolina


  • Run Plays 32.5 35.0
  • Run Yards 123.2 209.2
  • YPRP 3.8 6.0


  • Pass Comp 20.7 19.3
  • Pass Att 36.5 31.3
  • Comp % 56.6% 61.7%
  • Pass Yards 194.5 260.8
  • Sacks 1.8 0.5
  • Sack Yards 12.7 3.2
  • Sack % 4.8% 1.6%
  • Pass Plays 38.3 31.8
  • Net Pass Yards 181.8 257.7
  • YPPP 4.7 8.1


  • Total Plays 70.8 66.8
  • Total Yards 305.0 466.8
  • YPPL 4.3 7.0


  • Int 1.3 1.0
  • Int % 3.6% 3.2%
  • Fumbles 0.7 0.0
  • Turnovers 2.0 1.0
  • Points 13.3 36.2
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