Game Analysis

Lean – Over (51.5) – Fresno State (-11.5) vs Texas-El Paso

The X-factor in this game is how much Fresno State’s star quarterback Jake Haener will play. Haener entered the transfer portal when his head coach left for Washington but decided to return to Fresno when former Bulldogs’ coach Jeff Tedford was named the new head coach. However, there has been no word on who will start for Fresno and if Haener will actually play. The line went from 14-plus points down to 10.5 and has only come back 1 point, which is an indication that the market is unsure if or how much Haener will play.

UTEP is certainly excited to be in a bowl game and the Miners are decent offensively, as they averaged 6.1 yards per play this season against teams that would allow 6.4 yppl to an average team. The Miners are also 0.3 yppl worse than average defensively, yielding 5.3 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.0 yppl against an average stop unit.

Fresno State’s offense has been 0.6 yppl better than average with Haener behind center but would likely be closer to average without him in the game. The Bulldogs’ defense only allowed 21.2 points per game but they’re not as good as their points allowed would indicate. Fresno allowed 5.4 yppl but they faced teams that would combine to average only 5.2 yppl against an average defensive team (adjusted for facing the worst of the quarterbacks against U Conn, Hawaii, and New Mexico). Fresno has been better than expected (based on their defensive metrics) in redzone defense (just 4.5 points per RZ allowed) and only allowing 4 of 17 4^th down conversions is more lucky than good. So, Fresno’s defense isn’t nearly as good as the low points per game allowed suggests.

If Haener plays the entire game at his normal level, then I’d favor Fresno State by 14.7 points with a total of 57.7 points (adjusted for the good scoring conditions). If Haener doesn’t play at all then I’d favor Fresno by 9.5 points with a total of 53.5 points. There is also a decent likelihood that Haener plays part of the game, and the two backups get some snaps as well to reward them for taking most of the bowl practice reps.

Regardless, there is value on the over and I’ll lean over assuming that Haener will play at least some of the game.