Game Analysis

Lean – Over (67.5/68) – Oregon State (-7)  40   Utah State  33

I bet Utah State over 3.5 wins before the season started and the Aggies are now 10-3 with a conference championship. Oregon State also surpassed expectations and I was on the Beavers a few times in the first half of the season before the market caught up to how good they were. In other words, I like both of these teams. I don’t see any value in playing the side but I do think this game is likely to get into the 70s in total points.

Utah State’s offense averaged 458 total yards and 33.2 points per game, but the Aggies are just 0.1 yards per play better than an average FBS team, as their 6.0 yppl came against teams that would allow 5.9 yppl to an average team. Oregon State has a solid defense, as the Beavers allowed 5.8 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.9 yppl against an average defensive team, but not having the services of All-Pac 12 LB Avery Roberts is significant, as Roberts led the conference in tackles (128), including 9.5 tackles for loss. Without Roberts I rate the Beavers’ defense at 0.2 yppl worse than average and projects 483 yards at 6.3 yppl for Utah State, which includes a boost for playing in a domed stadium.

This issue for Utah State will be their inability to stop Oregon State’s prolific offense. The Beavers have the 10^th best offense in the nation on a compensated yards per play basis, running for 6.0 yards per rushing play while quarterback Chance Nolan averaged 7.8 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 6.2 yppp to an average QB). Overall, Oregon State rates at 1.2 yards per play better than average with Nolan at quarterback and the Beavers should move the ball at will against a Utah State defense that’s been 0.6 yppl worse than average. The Aggies have only faced one good offense and they allowed 520 yards at 8.1 yppl in that game against BYU (they played Washington State’s good offense in week 1 when the horrible Guarantano was the starting quarterback for WSU). Stopping the Beavers’ ground game should prove particularly difficult, as the Aggies allowed an average of 7.5 yprp to the 2 good rushing teams that they faced this season (Air Force and BYU). I project Oregon State to run for 6.6 yprp, for Nolan to average 8.9 yppp and for the Beavers offense to gain 501 yards at 7.6 yppl.

My math favors Oregon State by 9.5 points with a total of 73.1 points. The Beavers apply to a

The total on this game is low likely because Utah State’s defense is overrated. The 25.3 points per game that the Aggies have allowed is better than average, but they should have allowed 3 points more than they actually did. The disparity is due to some positive variance (i.e. luck) in 4^th-down conversions allowed (just 5 of 18) and in their redzone defensive stats. The 4.2 points per redzone opportunity that Utah State allowed ranks with the best defensive teams in the nation, which they clearly are not, and the Aggies should have allowed 5.0 points per redzone opportunity based on their overall defensive metrics. That difference is worth 3 points, which I don’t think is in the line here. I’ll lean over 69 points or less.