Game Analysis
Utah State (-6.5) 39 Kent State 32
Lean – Over (67.5) at 68 or less.
Friday, December 20 – 4:30 pm Pacific
Kent State had to win their final 3 games to get to 6-6 to qualify for a bowl game, so there is no doubt that the Golden Flashes are excited to be playing this game. I’m not so sure about Utah State’s focus given that this is a disappointing bowl game to be in after the high expectations brought on by last season’s 11-2 season. Speaking of high, the Aggies’ star quarterback Jordan Love and a few other players were cited for smoking weed on Saturday night, so their focus on being 100% prepared for this game could be in question. Then again, Love had stated that he will leave school a year early to enter the NFL draft (mistake) and he may suddenly be more inspired to impressive NFL scouts with the marijuana cloud now hanging over him.
Love really struggled this season after losing talent at the receiver position from last year’s team. He averaged a 6.7 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.9 yppp to an average team and he’s thrown 16 interceptions after throwing just 6 picks last season. Love should look good in this game against a horrible Kent State pass defense that’s allowed 7.6 yppp to a collection of quarterbacks that would combine to average only 6.0 yppp against an average defense. Love is projected to average 7.8 yppp in this game while the Aggies’ mediocre rushing attack is projected at 5.7 yprp against a Kent defense that has been 0.6 yprp worse than average.
Kent State’s case for winning this game depends on the Golden Flashes controlling the ball with their rushing attack and quarterback Dustin Crum continuing to avoid interceptions (he threw just 2 picks all season). Crum is also the leading rusher on the team and the Flashes are 0.1 yprp worse than average running and 0.3 yppp worse than average throwing it (with Crum at QB) after adjusting for opposing defenses faced. Kent should have pretty good success running the ball against a Utah State run defense that has been hurt by the absence of leading tackler David Woodward. Woodward has missed the last 5 games and he still leads the team in total tackles. Without Woodward, the Aggies have gone from a good run defense to a unit that has been 0.5 yprp worse than average. The pass defense has mostly been better than average aside from a couple of outliers and the Flashes are projected to run for 258 yards at 5.5 yprp and 207 pass yards at 5.8 yppp.
Overall, the math favors Utah State by 7.4 points with a total of 70.6 points. I suggest staying away from the side but I’d lean over 68 points or less.
Rush
-
Run Plays
35.1
37.0
-
Run Yards
184.4
157.9
-
YPRP
5.4
4.7
Pass
-
Pass Comp
22.9
19.4
-
Pass Att
36.6
35.2
-
Comp %
62.5%
55.0%
-
Pass Yards
293.4
244.9
-
Sacks
1.0
2.1
-
Sack Yards
5.4
14.4
-
Sack %
2.6%
5.6%
-
Pass Plays
37.6
37.3
-
Net Pass Yards
287.9
230.5
-
YPPP
7.7
6.2
Total
-
Total Plays
72.7
74.3
-
Total Yards
477.7
402.8
-
YPPL
6.6
5.4
TO
-
Int
0.8
1.5
-
Int %
2.1%
4.3%
-
Fumbles
0.7
0.7
-
Turnovers
1.4
2.2
Rush
-
Run Plays
37.2
44.4
-
Run Yards
173.7
243.5
-
YPRP
5.1
5.8
Pass
-
Pass Comp
18.2
15.8
-
Pass Att
29.7
25.9
-
Comp %
61.4%
61.0%
-
Pass Yards
196.0
208.6
-
Sacks
3.2
1.7
-
Sack Yards
16.2
12.0
-
Sack %
9.7%
6.3%
-
Pass Plays
32.9
27.6
-
Net Pass Yards
179.8
196.5
-
YPPP
5.5
7.1
Total
-
Total Plays
70.0
71.9
-
Total Yards
369.8
452.1
-
YPPL
5.3
6.3
TO
-
Int
0.5
0.5
-
Int %
1.5%
2.1%
-
Fumbles
0.7
0.8
-
Turnovers
1.1
1.4
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2019 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
10/05/18 @ BYU |
45-20 |
+2.5
W
|
40/15 |
227/54 |
5.7/3.6 |
0/2 |
18/30 |
28/49 |
165/313 |
0/1 |
0/1 |
5.9/6.3 |
392/367 |
5.8/5.6 |
10/13/18 UNLV |
59-28 |
-27.0
W
|
38/41 |
221/213 |
5.8/5.2 |
1/0 |
22/18 |
31/36 |
377/196 |
0/1 |
0/7 |
12.2/4.6 |
598/409 |
8.7/4.9 |
10/20/18 @ Wyoming |
24-16 |
-14.0
L
|
31/49 |
148/239 |
4.8/4.9 |
0/1 |
12/10 |
28/24 |
47/92 |
1/1 |
1/1 |
1.6/3.7 |
195/331 |
3.3/4.5 |
10/27/18 New Mexico |
61-19 |
-20.0
W
|
46/29 |
207/79 |
4.5/2.7 |
3/1 |
30/18 |
42/37 |
507/212 |
0/4 |
2/1 |
11.5/5.6 |
714/291 |
7.9/4.3 |
11/03/18 @ Hawaii |
56-17 |
-18.0
W
|
53/17 |
427/52 |
8.1/3.1 |
1/0 |
19/19 |
24/48 |
175/341 |
0/2 |
0/3 |
7.3/6.7 |
602/393 |
7.8/5.8 |
11/10/18 San Jose St. |
62-24 |
-31.0
W
|
39/19 |
254/51 |
6.5/2.7 |
0/1 |
35/22 |
50/42 |
560/220 |
0/2 |
0/1 |
11.2/5.1 |
814/271 |
9.1/4.4 |
11/17/18 @ Colorado St. |
29-24 |
-28.0
L
|
28/42 |
141/211 |
5.0/5.0 |
1/0 |
15/24 |
24/37 |
169/284 |
0/2 |
0/2 |
7.0/7.3 |
310/495 |
6.0/6.1 |
11/24/18 @ Boise St. |
24-33 |
+2.5
L
|
18/42 |
69/216 |
3.8/5.1 |
1/0 |
29/23 |
47/32 |
354/293 |
1/0 |
1/3 |
7.4/8.4 |
423/509 |
6.4/6.6 |
12/15/18 North Texas |
52-13 |
-7.5
W
|
39/38 |
203/169 |
5.2/4.4 |
0/0 |
21/17 |
43/34 |
353/180 |
1/4 |
1/2 |
8.0/5.0 |
556/349 |
6.7/4.7 |
08/30/19 @ Wake Forest |
35-38 |
+4.5
W
|
30/54 |
182/196 |
6.1/3.6 |
0/1 |
33/34 |
48/47 |
414/382 |
3/0 |
1/3 |
8.4/7.6 |
596/578 |
7.5/5.6 |
09/07/19 Stony Brook |
62-7 |
0.0
W
|
40/31 |
271/116 |
6.8/3.7 |
1/0 |
35/19 |
45/42 |
398/154 |
0/1 |
1/0 |
8.7/3.7 |
669/270 |
7.8/3.7 |
09/21/19 @ San Diego St. |
23-17 |
-4.0
W
|
26/42 |
91/160 |
3.5/3.8 |
0/0 |
30/20 |
47/37 |
293/251 |
0/1 |
0/4 |
6.2/6.1 |
384/411 |
5.3/5.0 |
09/28/19 Colorado St. |
34-24 |
-24.0
L
|
53/34 |
236/92 |
4.5/2.7 |
2/3 |
17/14 |
33/30 |
200/204 |
2/0 |
1/1 |
5.9/6.6 |
436/296 |
5.0/4.6 |
10/05/19 @ LSU |
6-42 |
+27.5
L
|
19/49 |
36/257 |
1.9/5.2 |
0/1 |
16/28 |
31/39 |
132/344 |
3/1 |
2/2 |
4.0/8.4 |
168/601 |
3.2/6.7 |
10/19/19 Nevada |
36-10 |
-21.0
W
|
39/32 |
286/133 |
7.3/4.2 |
1/0 |
15/17 |
33/38 |
156/194 |
1/2 |
3/3 |
4.3/4.7 |
442/327 |
5.9/4.5 |
10/26/19 @ Air Force |
7-31 |
+3.5
L
|
11/75 |
25/462 |
2.3/6.2 |
0/2 |
14/2 |
23/6 |
103/16 |
0/0 |
2/1 |
4.1/2.3 |
128/478 |
3.6/5.8 |
11/02/19 BYU |
14-42 |
-3.5
L
|
31/40 |
137/225 |
4.4/5.6 |
2/2 |
29/23 |
49/33 |
384/418 |
3/1 |
2/0 |
7.5/12.7 |
521/643 |
6.4/8.8 |
11/09/19 @ Fresno St. |
37-35 |
+5.5
W
|
32/34 |
144/161 |
4.5/4.7 |
0/0 |
30/16 |
39/20 |
383/259 |
0/0 |
1/1 |
9.6/12.3 |
527/420 |
7.3/7.6 |
11/16/19 Wyoming |
26-21 |
-4.5
W
|
39/40 |
143/190 |
3.7/4.8 |
0/1 |
21/20 |
35/36 |
305/165 |
2/3 |
2/2 |
8.2/4.3 |
448/355 |
5.9/4.6 |
11/23/19 Boise St. |
21-56 |
+4.0
L
|
30/45 |
144/309 |
4.8/6.9 |
0/0 |
27/16 |
47/29 |
284/175 |
2/0 |
4/1 |
5.6/5.8 |
428/484 |
5.3/6.5 |
11/30/19 @ New Mexico |
38-25 |
-11.5
W
|
38/50 |
205/301 |
5.4/6.0 |
0/2 |
18/10 |
35/21 |
172/91 |
1/2 |
0/3 |
4.9/3.8 |
377/392 |
5.2/5.3 |
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2019 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
10/06/18 Ohio |
26-27 |
+12.0
W
|
34/35 |
213/151 |
6.3/4.3 |
1/3 |
27/18 |
35/20 |
258/268 |
2/1 |
2/2 |
7.0/12.2 |
471/419 |
6.6/7.4 |
10/13/18 @ Miami Ohio |
6-31 |
+11.0
L
|
26/48 |
146/302 |
5.6/6.3 |
0/1 |
15/16 |
29/24 |
89/206 |
1/0 |
5/1 |
2.6/8.2 |
235/508 |
3.9/7.0 |
10/20/18 Akron |
23-24 |
+5.0
W
|
42/36 |
175/170 |
4.2/4.7 |
0/0 |
16/19 |
30/35 |
187/192 |
0/1 |
1/3 |
6.0/5.1 |
362/362 |
5.0/4.9 |
10/30/18 @ Bowling Green |
35-28 |
+1.5
W
|
45/36 |
245/122 |
5.4/3.4 |
1/0 |
14/21 |
24/38 |
139/201 |
0/1 |
4/3 |
5.0/4.9 |
384/323 |
5.3/4.2 |
11/06/18 @ Buffalo |
14-48 |
+17.0
L
|
38/57 |
118/358 |
3.1/6.3 |
0/1 |
14/9 |
28/21 |
65/146 |
0/0 |
2/0 |
2.2/7.0 |
183/504 |
2.7/6.5 |
11/15/18 Toledo |
34-56 |
+11.5
L
|
32/48 |
201/385 |
6.3/8.0 |
0/0 |
24/12 |
41/18 |
230/160 |
1/0 |
3/0 |
5.2/8.9 |
431/545 |
5.7/8.3 |
11/23/18 Eastern Mich |
20-28 |
+13.5
W
|
41/39 |
200/257 |
4.9/6.6 |
2/1 |
19/13 |
35/26 |
192/125 |
1/1 |
4/2 |
4.9/4.5 |
392/382 |
4.9/5.7 |
08/29/19 @ Arizona St. |
7-30 |
+24.5
W
|
37/40 |
150/194 |
4.1/4.9 |
2/1 |
12/15 |
24/24 |
65/260 |
0/0 |
3/5 |
2.4/9.0 |
215/454 |
3.4/6.6 |
09/07/19 Kennesaw State |
26-23 |
0.0
W
|
33/63 |
167/261 |
5.1/4.1 |
2/1 |
17/8 |
23/21 |
178/176 |
0/1 |
3/2 |
6.8/7.7 |
345/437 |
5.8/5.1 |
09/14/19 @ Auburn |
16-55 |
+35.5
L
|
27/60 |
112/486 |
4.1/8.1 |
0/0 |
18/13 |
36/17 |
209/147 |
0/0 |
5/2 |
5.1/7.7 |
321/633 |
4.7/8.0 |
09/21/19 Bowling Green |
62-20 |
-11.5
W
|
46/38 |
307/182 |
6.7/4.8 |
0/0 |
31/23 |
36/33 |
371/179 |
0/2 |
1/2 |
10.0/5.1 |
678/361 |
8.2/4.9 |
10/05/19 @ Wisconsin |
0-48 |
+35.0
L
|
19/54 |
107/352 |
5.6/6.5 |
1/1 |
10/17 |
17/20 |
17/179 |
0/0 |
9/1 |
0.7/8.5 |
124/531 |
2.8/7.1 |
10/12/19 @ Akron |
26-3 |
-14.5
W
|
44/27 |
252/123 |
5.7/4.6 |
0/1 |
16/17 |
21/29 |
138/177 |
0/0 |
3/5 |
5.8/5.2 |
390/300 |
5.7/4.9 |
10/19/19 @ Ohio |
38-45 |
+8.0
W
|
37/44 |
233/231 |
6.3/5.3 |
1/0 |
24/19 |
35/28 |
247/338 |
0/0 |
2/1 |
6.7/11.7 |
480/569 |
6.5/7.8 |
10/26/19 Miami Ohio |
16-23 |
-2.5
L
|
37/41 |
141/293 |
3.8/7.1 |
1/2 |
23/13 |
44/29 |
195/174 |
1/0 |
3/1 |
4.1/5.8 |
336/467 |
4.0/6.6 |
11/05/19 @ Toledo |
33-35 |
+5.0
W
|
41/49 |
195/309 |
4.8/6.3 |
1/1 |
14/15 |
18/25 |
243/187 |
0/1 |
3/1 |
11.6/7.2 |
438/496 |
7.1/6.6 |
11/14/19 Buffalo |
30-27 |
+6.0
W
|
35/51 |
143/245 |
4.1/4.8 |
0/1 |
16/9 |
25/22 |
141/134 |
1/0 |
5/0 |
4.7/6.1 |
284/379 |
4.4/5.2 |
11/23/19 Ball St. |
41-38 |
+3.5
W
|
46/57 |
271/346 |
5.9/6.1 |
0/1 |
18/16 |
26/23 |
364/180 |
0/0 |
2/2 |
13.0/7.2 |
635/526 |
8.6/6.4 |
11/29/19 @ Eastern Mich |
34-26 |
+4.0
W
|
48/31 |
265/133 |
5.5/4.3 |
1/0 |
17/29 |
23/37 |
187/383 |
0/2 |
2/1 |
7.5/10.1 |
452/516 |
6.2/7.5 |