Utah St. vs

Kent State

at Frisco TX
Fri, Dec 20
4:30 PM Pacific
Odds: Kent State +6.5, Total: 67.5

Game Analysis

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Utah State (-6.5)  39   Kent State  32

Lean – Over (67.5) at 68 or less.

Friday, December 20 – 4:30 pm Pacific

Kent State had to win their final 3 games to get to 6-6 to qualify for a bowl game, so there is no doubt that the Golden Flashes are excited to be playing this game. I’m not so sure about Utah State’s focus given that this is a disappointing bowl game to be in after the high expectations brought on by last season’s 11-2 season. Speaking of high, the Aggies’ star quarterback Jordan Love and a few other players were cited for smoking weed on Saturday night, so their focus on being 100% prepared for this game could be in question. Then again, Love had stated that he will leave school a year early to enter the NFL draft (mistake) and he may suddenly be more inspired to impressive NFL scouts with the marijuana cloud now hanging over him.

Love really struggled this season after losing talent at the receiver position from last year’s team. He averaged a 6.7 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.9 yppp to an average team and he’s thrown 16 interceptions after throwing just 6 picks last season. Love should look good in this game against a horrible Kent State pass defense that’s allowed 7.6 yppp to a collection of quarterbacks that would combine to average only 6.0 yppp against an average defense. Love is projected to average 7.8 yppp in this game while the Aggies’ mediocre rushing attack is projected at 5.7 yprp against a Kent defense that has been 0.6 yprp worse than average.

Kent State’s case for winning this game depends on the Golden Flashes controlling the ball with their rushing attack and quarterback Dustin Crum continuing to avoid interceptions (he threw just 2 picks all season). Crum is also the leading rusher on the team and the Flashes are 0.1 yprp worse than average running and 0.3 yppp worse than average throwing it (with Crum at QB) after adjusting for opposing defenses faced. Kent should have pretty good success running the ball against a Utah State run defense that has been hurt by the absence of leading tackler David Woodward. Woodward has missed the last 5 games and he still leads the team in total tackles. Without Woodward, the Aggies have gone from a good run defense to a unit that has been 0.5 yprp worse than average. The pass defense has mostly been better than average aside from a couple of outliers and the Flashes are projected to run for 258 yards at 5.5 yprp and 207 pass yards at 5.8 yppp.

Overall, the math favors Utah State by 7.4 points with a total of 70.6 points. I suggest staying away from the side but I’d lean over 68 points or less.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Utah St.
  • Kent State


  • Run Plays 35.1 37.0
  • Run Yards 184.4 157.9
  • YPRP 5.4 4.7


  • Pass Comp 22.9 19.4
  • Pass Att 36.6 35.2
  • Comp % 62.5% 55.0%
  • Pass Yards 293.4 244.9
  • Sacks 1.0 2.1
  • Sack Yards 5.4 14.4
  • Sack % 2.6% 5.6%
  • Pass Plays 37.6 37.3
  • Net Pass Yards 287.9 230.5
  • YPPP 7.7 6.2


  • Total Plays 72.7 74.3
  • Total Yards 477.7 402.8
  • YPPL 6.6 5.4


  • Int 0.8 1.5
  • Int % 2.1% 4.3%
  • Fumbles 0.7 0.7
  • Turnovers 1.4 2.2
  • Points 28.3 29.0
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