Utah St. @

BYU

Thu, Sep 29
ESPN
5:00 PM Pacific
Rotation: 103
Odds: BYU -26, Total: 59

Game Analysis

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BYU (-25.5)  40   Utah State  17

(Originally posted as BYU (-24.5) 40-19. Adjusted for Utah State QB Bonner being out).

My season win total bet on Utah State under 7 wins is looking good but for the first time all season my math shows value on the Aggies, who are 0-4 ATS and certainly unwanted by bettors. Utah State’s defense isn’t as bad as the 36 points per game allowed suggests, as they’ve yielded just 5.6 yards per play to a slate of opponents that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average team. That Aggies are also just 0.3 yards per play worse than average offensively with their starting quarterback in the game and they outgained UNLV by 102 yards in last week’s 10-point loss to the Rebels (-6 in turnovers is why they lost).

Note: It appears as if Utah State’s starting quarterback Logan Bonner is out for the season with a broken foot. Bonner has been terrible so far with just 56% completions and 8 interceptions but there still could be some drop-off given that Legas hasn’t proven to be a good passer yet and Levi Williams (former Wyoming QB) is a good runner but an even more inconsistent passer.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Utah St.
  • BYU
UTS
Offense
Defense

Rush

  • Run Plays 37.5 40.0
  • Run Yards 147.5 210.0
  • YPRP 3.9 5.3




Pass





  • Pass Comp 18.0 18.0
  • Pass Att 33.5 31.5
  • Comp % 53.7% 57.1%
  • Pass Yards 211.3 207.8
  • Sacks 0.8 1.3
  • Sack Yards 2.0 5.3
  • Sack % 2.2% 3.8%
  • Pass Plays 34.3 32.8
  • Net Pass Yards 209.3 202.5
  • YPPP 6.1 6.2

Total

  • Total Plays 71.8 72.8
  • Total Yards 356.8 412.5
  • YPPL 5.0 5.7

TO


  • Int 2.3 1.5
  • Int % 6.7% 4.8%
  • Fumbles 0.8 0.3
  • Turnovers 3.0 1.8
 
  • Points 15.5 36.0
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