Game Analysis
BYU (-25.5) 40 Utah State 17
(Originally posted as BYU (-24.5) 40-19. Adjusted for Utah State QB Bonner being out).
My season win total bet on Utah State under 7 wins is looking good but for the first time all season my math shows value on the Aggies, who are 0-4 ATS and certainly unwanted by bettors. Utah State’s defense isn’t as bad as the 36 points per game allowed suggests, as they’ve yielded just 5.6 yards per play to a slate of opponents that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average team. That Aggies are also just 0.3 yards per play worse than average offensively with their starting quarterback in the game and they outgained UNLV by 102 yards in last week’s 10-point loss to the Rebels (-6 in turnovers is why they lost).
Note: It appears as if Utah State’s starting quarterback Logan Bonner is out for the season with a broken foot. Bonner has been terrible so far with just 56% completions and 8 interceptions but there still could be some drop-off given that Legas hasn’t proven to be a good passer yet and Levi Williams (former Wyoming QB) is a good runner but an even more inconsistent passer.
Rush
-
Run Plays
37.5
40.0
-
Run Yards
147.5
210.0
-
YPRP
3.9
5.3
Pass
-
Pass Comp
18.0
18.0
-
Pass Att
33.5
31.5
-
Comp %
53.7%
57.1%
-
Pass Yards
211.3
207.8
-
Sacks
0.8
1.3
-
Sack Yards
2.0
5.3
-
Sack %
2.2%
3.8%
-
Pass Plays
34.3
32.8
-
Net Pass Yards
209.3
202.5
-
YPPP
6.1
6.2
Total
-
Total Plays
71.8
72.8
-
Total Yards
356.8
412.5
-
YPPL
5.0
5.7
TO
-
Int
2.3
1.5
-
Int %
6.7%
4.8%
-
Fumbles
0.8
0.3
-
Turnovers
3.0
1.8
Rush
-
Run Plays
29.3
36.8
-
Run Yards
158.5
172.0
-
YPRP
5.4
4.7
Pass
-
Pass Comp
26.0
15.8
-
Pass Att
36.3
26.3
-
Comp %
71.7%
60.0%
-
Pass Yards
296.5
166.0
-
Sacks
1.3
1.8
-
Sack Yards
5.8
11.5
-
Sack %
3.3%
6.3%
-
Pass Plays
37.5
28.0
-
Net Pass Yards
290.8
154.5
-
YPPP
7.8
5.5
Total
-
Total Plays
66.8
64.8
-
Total Yards
449.3
326.5
-
YPPL
6.7
5.0
TO
-
Int
0.3
0.5
-
Int %
0.7%
1.9%
-
Fumbles
0.0
0.0
-
Turnovers
0.3
0.5
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2022 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
08/27/22 Connecticut |
31-20 |
-26.5
L
|
50/38 |
269/240 |
5.4/6.3 |
2/1 |
20/13 |
31/33 |
267/119 |
0/2 |
1/0 |
8.3/3.6 |
536/359 |
6.5/5.1 |
09/03/22 @ Alabama |
0-55 |
+41.5
L
|
37/31 |
91/285 |
2.5/9.2 |
0/0 |
8/27 |
22/40 |
95/286 |
0/1 |
0/1 |
4.3/7.0 |
186/571 |
3.2/7.9 |
09/10/22 Weber State |
7-35 |
0.0
L
|
33/53 |
120/198 |
3.6/3.7 |
0/0 |
17/11 |
40/22 |
163/202 |
4/3 |
1/0 |
4.0/9.2 |
283/400 |
3.8/5.3 |
09/24/22 UNLV |
24-34 |
+3.0
L
|
30/38 |
110/117 |
3.7/3.1 |
1/0 |
27/21 |
41/31 |
312/203 |
5/0 |
1/4 |
7.4/5.8 |
422/320 |
5.9/4.4 |
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2022 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
09/03/22 @ South Florida |
50-21 |
-11.5
W
|
35/25 |
279/121 |
8.0/4.8 |
0/0 |
25/17 |
32/30 |
260/172 |
1/1 |
1/1 |
7.9/5.5 |
539/293 |
7.9/5.2 |
09/10/22 Baylor |
26-20 |
-2.5
W
|
31/46 |
94/176 |
3.0/3.8 |
0/0 |
24/18 |
40/28 |
272/115 |
0/0 |
2/4 |
6.5/3.6 |
366/291 |
5.0/3.7 |
09/17/22 @ Oregon |
20-41 |
+3.5
L
|
23/44 |
65/238 |
2.8/5.4 |
0/0 |
29/14 |
41/20 |
301/238 |
0/1 |
1/0 |
7.2/11.9 |
366/476 |
5.6/7.4 |
09/24/22 Wyoming |
38-24 |
-21.5
L
|
28/32 |
196/153 |
7.0/4.8 |
0/0 |
26/14 |
32/27 |
330/93 |
0/0 |
1/2 |
10.0/3.2 |
526/246 |
8.6/4.0 |