Game Analysis
Lean – Under (48.5) – USC (-8.5) 24 Minnesota 17
USC has not bee as good offensively as I thought they’d be, as the Trojans have been 0.7 yards per play better than average offensively so far this season (6.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team). That’s still good, just not as good as in recent years and the Trojans have only averaged 5.5 yppl the last two weeks against better than average defensive teams Michigan and Wisconsin. I think the offense will struggle even more against an elite Minnesota defense that’s yielded just 15.4 points per game and only 4.0 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average defensive team.
Minnesota’s offense has been 0.5 yppl worse than average so far this season and I don’t expect much from them against a solid USC defense that’s not allowed more than 21 points to any offense this season (Michigan got a defensive TD to get to 27 points) and has yielded only 5.5 yppl to teams that would combine to average 6.1 yppl against an average stop unit.
Throw in the double-digit wind and I don’t think it’s likely that this game gets over the total.
Rush
-
Run Plays
26.8
29.8
-
Run Yards
156.8
150.8
-
YPRP
5.9
5.1
Pass
-
Pass Comp
28.5
16.8
-
Pass Att
43.5
25.8
-
Comp %
65.5%
65.0%
-
Pass Yards
318.3
154.8
-
Sacks
1.8
1.3
-
Sack Yards
10.3
6.3
-
Sack %
3.9%
4.6%
-
Pass Plays
45.3
27.0
-
Net Pass Yards
308.0
148.5
-
YPPP
6.8
5.5
Total
-
Total Plays
72.0
56.8
-
Total Yards
464.8
299.3
-
YPPL
6.5
5.3
TO
-
Int
0.5
0.8
-
Int %
1.1%
2.9%
-
Fumbles
1.0
0.8
-
Turnovers
1.5
1.5
Rush
-
Run Plays
27.0
32.8
-
Run Yards
111.8
146.6
-
YPRP
4.1
4.5
Pass
-
Pass Comp
21.0
12.6
-
Pass Att
31.6
22.6
-
Comp %
66.5%
55.8%
-
Pass Yards
220.8
96.8
-
Sacks
2.8
1.8
-
Sack Yards
16.4
12.8
-
Sack %
8.1%
7.4%
-
Pass Plays
34.4
24.4
-
Net Pass Yards
204.4
84.0
-
YPPP
5.9
3.4
Total
-
Total Plays
61.4
57.2
-
Total Yards
316.2
230.6
-
YPPL
5.1
4.0
TO
-
Int
0.8
1.6
-
Int %
2.5%
7.1%
-
Fumbles
0.4
0.2
-
Turnovers
1.2
1.8
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2024 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 09/01/24 LSU |
27-20 |
+6.0
W
|
20/26 |
85/117 |
4.3/4.5 |
0/0 |
27/29 |
36/38 |
370/304 |
0/1 |
2/0 |
9.7/8.0 |
455/421 |
7.8/6.6 |
| 09/07/24 Utah St. |
48-0 |
-28.5
W
|
35/20 |
253/98 |
7.2/4.9 |
1/0 |
29/18 |
41/27 |
304/88 |
0/1 |
0/3 |
7.4/2.9 |
557/186 |
7.3/3.7 |
| 09/21/24 @ Michigan |
24-27 |
-4.5
L
|
17/48 |
124/282 |
7.3/5.9 |
1/2 |
28/7 |
52/12 |
255/22 |
1/0 |
4/2 |
4.6/1.6 |
379/304 |
5.2/4.9 |
| 09/28/24 Wisconsin |
38-21 |
-14.0
W
|
35/25 |
165/106 |
4.7/4.2 |
2/1 |
30/13 |
45/26 |
303/180 |
1/1 |
1/0 |
6.6/6.9 |
468/286 |
5.8/5.6 |
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2024 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 08/29/24 North Carolina |
17-19 |
+2.0
T
|
28/39 |
101/161 |
3.6/4.1 |
1/0 |
13/14 |
21/23 |
116/95 |
0/1 |
5/2 |
4.5/3.8 |
217/256 |
4.0/4.0 |
| 09/07/24 Rhode Island |
48-0 |
0.0
W
|
36/12 |
134/24 |
3.7/2.0 |
0/1 |
27/13 |
34/30 |
290/111 |
0/3 |
2/1 |
8.1/3.6 |
424/135 |
5.9/3.1 |
| 09/14/24 Nevada |
27-0 |
-17.5
W
|
31/27 |
174/85 |
5.6/3.1 |
0/0 |
16/15 |
26/23 |
182/87 |
1/3 |
1/4 |
6.7/3.2 |
356/172 |
6.1/3.2 |
| 09/21/24 Iowa |
14-31 |
+3.0
L
|
20/44 |
84/285 |
4.2/6.5 |
0/0 |
22/11 |
37/19 |
204/49 |
2/0 |
1/1 |
5.4/2.5 |
288/334 |
5.0/5.2 |
| 09/28/24 @ Michigan |
24-27 |
+10.0
W
|
20/42 |
66/178 |
3.3/4.2 |
1/0 |
27/10 |
40/18 |
230/78 |
1/1 |
5/1 |
5.1/4.1 |
296/256 |
4.6/4.2 |
USC
@ 
Minnesota