Game Analysis

BOISE STATE (-4)  30   Nevada-Las Vegas  29

Boise State beat UNLV 29-24 in Las Vegas in week 9 with an interception thrown by Rebels’ quarterback Hajj-Malik Williams at the end of the first-half being the difference in that game, as it set up the Broncos with a 1st-and-goal at the 7-yard line with 1:34 left in the half that was converted into 7 points. That game was even from the line of scrimmage with Boise State having more total yards (398 to 368) but UNLV averaging more yards per play (6.6 yppl to 5.7 yppl).

UNLV is just as good as Boise State from the line of scrimmage. UNLV’s offense in 9 games with Williams at quarterback has been 0.7 yppl better than average while Boise’s offense rates at 0.8 yppl better than average. The Rebels’ defense is 0.5 yppl better than average while the Broncos’ stop unit has been just 0.1 yppl better than average. Overall, that’s a 0.3 yppl edge for UNLV but the Rebels tend to run fewer plays than their opponents due to the number of big plays they produce.

My math model projects Boise to run 10 more plays from the line of scrimmage and gain 437 yards at 6.25 yards per play while UNLV is projected at 369 yards at 6.17 yppl. The Rebels have elite special teams that helps with field position, as they rank 4th best in the nation in net starting field position differential and overall the math favors Boise by just 1 point with a total of 58.6 points (taking into account the expected good weather.