Game Analysis

Lean – Over (48) – TROY (-9)  32   Louisiana-Lafayette  23

Both teams are improved offensively due to a change in quarterback. Louisiana-Lafayette improved when Lunch Winfield took over that quarterbacking duties in the middle of the week 5 game against Marshall. Winfield isn’t good as a passer but his 6.1 yards per pass play is better than the 3.8 yppp that the other two quarterbacks averaged and he adds a running element (296 yards on 48 runs).

Troy quarterback Tucker Kilcrease was obviously ill-prepared coming of the bench after the injury to Goose Crowder against Memphis (just 30 yards on 33 pass plays, but he’s averaged 9.1 yards per pass play in 3 games as a starter with the Trojans averaging 34 points per game (in regulation).

I don’t think the market has appropriately adjusted for those improvements. Lean on the Over at 49 points or less.