UL Lafayette vs

Miami Ohio

at Mobile
Mon, Jan 6
4:30 PM Pacific
Rotation: 279
Odds: Miami Ohio +15.5, Total: 55

Game Analysis

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Lean – Miami-Ohio (+15.5)  21   Louisiana-Lafayette  33   

The final bowl game before the National Championship game pits the offensively potent Louisiana team against a stout Miami-Ohio defense, but the Ragin’ Cajuns have an edge in that matchup and Miami’s bad offense doesn’t figure to keep up against a solid ULL defense. However, the line looks a bit too high here – although not enough for me to be tempted to play this game.

Louisiana-Lafayette has three very good running backs that have all been named to the All-Sun Belt team at some point in their careers. The three-headed running monster of Mitchell, Calais, and Ragas have combined to run for 2755 yards at 6.8 yards per run and the #4 back added another 334 yard at 10.4 ypr. The rushing numbers are elite at a national level even after adjusting for schedule strength, as the Ragin’ Cajuns averaged 265 rushing yards at 6.6 yards per rushing play against teams that would combine to allow 5.3 yprp to an average team. Quarterback Levi Lewis averaged 7.1 yards per pass play against a schedule of teams that would allow 7.1 yppp to an average quarterback and overall ULL was 0.7 yards per play better than average (6.8 yppl against teams that would allow 6.1 yppl).

Miami-Ohio won the MAC on the strength of a defense that is 0.4 yppl better than average, having yielded 5.2 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average defensive team. The Redhawks are just average defending the run, so the Ragin’ Cajuns should run well (6.5 yprp projected) but Lewis will likely struggle against a very good Miami pass defense (5.3 yppp allowed to quarterbacks that would average 6.1 yppp against an average defense) that is 1.5 yppp better than what Lewis faced on average this season. ULL averaged 35.8 points this season but Miami’s defense is much better than what they’ve faced on average this season and my math projects 461 yards at 6.2 yppl and 33.1 points for the Ragin’ Cajuns.

ULL was known for their offense but the Cajuns were much improved defensively this season and allowed just 5.8 yppl and 21.1 points per game against teams that would average 5.7 yppl against an average defense. That defense rates about the same as the average defense that Miami faced this season and averaged just 5.1 yppl and 22.8 points per game against. The Redhawks are 1.0 yards per rushing play worse than average and quarterback Brett Gabbert is 0.3 yppp worse than average. The math projects just 324 yards at 5.2 yppl and 21.2 points, which is in line with their season scoring average.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • UL Lafayette
  • Miami Ohio
ULL
Offense
Defense

Rush

  • Run Plays 39.3 39.3
  • Run Yards 237.4 200.4
  • YPRP 6.3 5.4




Pass





  • Pass Comp 16.7 16.0
  • Pass Att 26.4 26.8
  • Comp % 63.2% 59.6%
  • Pass Yards 221.7 202.5
  • Sacks 1.6 2.0
  • Sack Yards 10.3 13.0
  • Sack % 5.7% 6.9%
  • Pass Plays 28.0 28.8
  • Net Pass Yards 211.4 189.5
  • YPPP 7.6 6.6

Total

  • Total Plays 67.3 68.1
  • Total Yards 459.1 402.9
  • YPPL 6.8 5.9

TO


  • Int 0.8 0.8
  • Int % 2.8% 2.8%
  • Fumbles 0.5 0.6
  • Turnovers 1.3 1.4
 
  • Points 38.8 19.9
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