Game Analysis
Lean – Miami-Ohio (+15.5) 21 Louisiana-Lafayette 33
The final bowl game before the National Championship game pits the offensively potent Louisiana team against a stout Miami-Ohio defense, but the Ragin’ Cajuns have an edge in that matchup and Miami’s bad offense doesn’t figure to keep up against a solid ULL defense. However, the line looks a bit too high here – although not enough for me to be tempted to play this game.
Louisiana-Lafayette has three very good running backs that have all been named to the All-Sun Belt team at some point in their careers. The three-headed running monster of Mitchell, Calais, and Ragas have combined to run for 2755 yards at 6.8 yards per run and the #4 back added another 334 yard at 10.4 ypr. The rushing numbers are elite at a national level even after adjusting for schedule strength, as the Ragin’ Cajuns averaged 265 rushing yards at 6.6 yards per rushing play against teams that would combine to allow 5.3 yprp to an average team. Quarterback Levi Lewis averaged 7.1 yards per pass play against a schedule of teams that would allow 7.1 yppp to an average quarterback and overall ULL was 0.7 yards per play better than average (6.8 yppl against teams that would allow 6.1 yppl).
Miami-Ohio won the MAC on the strength of a defense that is 0.4 yppl better than average, having yielded 5.2 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average defensive team. The Redhawks are just average defending the run, so the Ragin’ Cajuns should run well (6.5 yprp projected) but Lewis will likely struggle against a very good Miami pass defense (5.3 yppp allowed to quarterbacks that would average 6.1 yppp against an average defense) that is 1.5 yppp better than what Lewis faced on average this season. ULL averaged 35.8 points this season but Miami’s defense is much better than what they’ve faced on average this season and my math projects 461 yards at 6.2 yppl and 33.1 points for the Ragin’ Cajuns.
ULL was known for their offense but the Cajuns were much improved defensively this season and allowed just 5.8 yppl and 21.1 points per game against teams that would average 5.7 yppl against an average defense. That defense rates about the same as the average defense that Miami faced this season and averaged just 5.1 yppl and 22.8 points per game against. The Redhawks are 1.0 yards per rushing play worse than average and quarterback Brett Gabbert is 0.3 yppp worse than average. The math projects just 324 yards at 5.2 yppl and 21.2 points, which is in line with their season scoring average.
Rush
-
Run Plays
39.3
39.3
-
Run Yards
237.4
200.4
-
YPRP
6.3
5.4
Pass
-
Pass Comp
16.7
16.0
-
Pass Att
26.4
26.8
-
Comp %
63.2%
59.6%
-
Pass Yards
221.7
202.5
-
Sacks
1.6
2.0
-
Sack Yards
10.3
13.0
-
Sack %
5.7%
6.9%
-
Pass Plays
28.0
28.8
-
Net Pass Yards
211.4
189.5
-
YPPP
7.6
6.6
Total
-
Total Plays
67.3
68.1
-
Total Yards
459.1
402.9
-
YPPL
6.8
5.9
TO
-
Int
0.8
0.8
-
Int %
2.8%
2.8%
-
Fumbles
0.5
0.6
-
Turnovers
1.3
1.4
Rush
-
Run Plays
36.2
37.3
-
Run Yards
164.2
181.3
-
YPRP
4.8
5.3
Pass
-
Pass Comp
16.2
16.7
-
Pass Att
27.8
29.6
-
Comp %
58.4%
56.3%
-
Pass Yards
199.5
186.2
-
Sacks
2.2
2.9
-
Sack Yards
10.6
16.7
-
Sack %
7.3%
8.9%
-
Pass Plays
30.0
32.5
-
Net Pass Yards
188.9
169.5
-
YPPP
6.3
5.2
Total
-
Total Plays
66.1
69.7
-
Total Yards
363.7
367.5
-
YPPL
5.5
5.3
TO
-
Int
0.6
0.9
-
Int %
2.2%
3.0%
-
Fumbles
0.5
0.6
-
Turnovers
1.1
1.5
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2019 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
10/06/18 @ Texas State |
42-27 |
-3.5
W
|
49/26 |
327/141 |
6.7/5.4 |
0/0 |
14/29 |
23/41 |
230/284 |
1/0 |
0/2 |
10.0/6.6 |
557/425 |
7.7/6.2 |
10/13/18 New Mexico St. |
66-38 |
-10.0
W
|
53/21 |
355/152 |
6.7/7.2 |
1/1 |
22/25 |
29/44 |
404/253 |
0/1 |
2/4 |
13.0/5.3 |
759/405 |
9.0/5.9 |
10/20/18 @ Appalachian State |
17-27 |
+24.5
W
|
36/47 |
162/270 |
4.5/5.7 |
1/0 |
17/10 |
27/20 |
170/106 |
0/1 |
4/0 |
5.5/5.3 |
332/376 |
5.0/5.6 |
10/27/18 Arkansas St. |
47-43 |
+3.0
W
|
36/43 |
248/220 |
6.9/5.1 |
0/0 |
19/17 |
28/30 |
319/258 |
2/1 |
0/2 |
11.4/8.1 |
567/478 |
8.9/6.4 |
11/03/18 @ Troy |
16-26 |
+9.5
L
|
31/37 |
128/149 |
4.1/4.0 |
1/1 |
14/18 |
29/22 |
146/309 |
2/0 |
5/1 |
4.3/13.4 |
274/458 |
4.2/7.6 |
11/10/18 Georgia St. |
36-22 |
-14.0
T
|
37/42 |
356/259 |
9.6/6.2 |
0/0 |
16/10 |
23/21 |
170/114 |
0/1 |
0/1 |
7.4/5.2 |
526/373 |
8.8/5.8 |
11/17/18 South Alabama |
48-38 |
-19.5
L
|
32/57 |
211/225 |
6.6/3.9 |
0/2 |
13/18 |
19/28 |
197/254 |
1/1 |
0/0 |
10.4/9.1 |
408/479 |
8.0/5.6 |
11/24/18 @ UL Monroe |
31-28 |
+2.5
W
|
48/32 |
247/163 |
5.1/5.1 |
0/1 |
17/15 |
21/24 |
206/181 |
1/1 |
1/3 |
9.4/6.7 |
453/344 |
6.5/5.8 |
12/01/18 @ Appalachian State |
19-30 |
+17.0
W
|
43/39 |
218/242 |
5.1/6.2 |
0/0 |
10/6 |
22/13 |
85/62 |
2/0 |
0/3 |
3.9/3.9 |
303/304 |
4.7/5.5 |
12/15/18 @ Tulane |
24-41 |
+3.5
L
|
24/63 |
123/344 |
5.1/5.5 |
0/1 |
11/11 |
24/18 |
135/135 |
1/1 |
6/2 |
4.5/6.8 |
258/479 |
4.8/5.8 |
08/31/19 Mississippi St. |
28-38 |
+19.0
W
|
35/38 |
192/268 |
5.5/7.1 |
3/2 |
24/20 |
38/30 |
250/229 |
1/0 |
2/2 |
6.3/7.2 |
442/497 |
5.9/7.1 |
09/07/19 Liberty |
35-14 |
-14.0
W
|
44/24 |
422/169 |
9.6/7.0 |
1/0 |
16/22 |
25/39 |
171/193 |
1/1 |
2/3 |
6.3/4.6 |
593/362 |
8.4/5.5 |
09/14/19 Texas Southern |
77-6 |
0.0
W
|
42/25 |
444/75 |
10.6/3.0 |
0/0 |
22/20 |
29/41 |
308/151 |
0/0 |
0/2 |
10.6/3.5 |
752/226 |
10.6/3.3 |
09/21/19 @ Ohio |
45-25 |
+3.0
W
|
43/27 |
317/116 |
7.4/4.3 |
1/2 |
20/18 |
30/38 |
187/267 |
0/3 |
2/1 |
5.8/6.8 |
504/383 |
6.7/5.8 |
09/28/19 @ Georgia Southern |
37-24 |
-3.0
W
|
41/50 |
275/254 |
6.7/5.1 |
2/0 |
11/6 |
18/12 |
165/19 |
0/0 |
0/3 |
9.2/1.3 |
440/273 |
7.5/4.2 |
10/09/19 Appalachian State |
7-17 |
-2.0
L
|
30/50 |
145/220 |
4.8/4.4 |
0/0 |
13/11 |
24/17 |
109/124 |
0/0 |
3/2 |
4.0/6.5 |
254/344 |
4.5/5.0 |
10/17/19 @ Arkansas St. |
37-20 |
-6.0
W
|
45/45 |
321/192 |
7.1/4.3 |
0/0 |
17/23 |
24/34 |
175/283 |
1/1 |
1/3 |
7.0/7.6 |
496/475 |
7.1/5.8 |
11/02/19 Texas State |
31-3 |
-23.0
W
|
49/22 |
296/63 |
6.0/2.9 |
1/0 |
13/24 |
21/36 |
181/206 |
0/2 |
0/0 |
8.6/5.7 |
477/269 |
6.8/4.6 |
11/07/19 @ Coastal Carolina |
48-7 |
-14.0
W
|
36/30 |
225/119 |
6.3/4.0 |
0/1 |
30/12 |
37/20 |
352/75 |
0/0 |
0/2 |
9.5/3.4 |
577/194 |
7.9/3.7 |
11/16/19 @ South Alabama |
37-27 |
-28.0
L
|
44/48 |
263/362 |
6.0/7.5 |
0/1 |
16/8 |
28/15 |
128/98 |
0/0 |
1/2 |
4.4/5.8 |
391/460 |
5.4/7.1 |
11/23/19 Troy |
53-3 |
-13.0
W
|
36/31 |
271/174 |
7.5/5.6 |
0/1 |
28/18 |
40/40 |
327/210 |
0/2 |
1/4 |
8.0/4.8 |
598/384 |
7.8/5.1 |
11/30/19 UL Monroe |
31-30 |
-19.5
L
|
39/34 |
267/254 |
6.8/7.5 |
0/0 |
15/22 |
23/37 |
256/316 |
0/1 |
2/3 |
10.2/7.9 |
523/570 |
8.2/7.7 |
12/07/19 @ Appalachian State |
38-45 |
+6.5
L
|
37/46 |
183/308 |
4.9/6.7 |
2/1 |
24/9 |
46/17 |
339/133 |
1/0 |
1/3 |
7.2/6.7 |
522/441 |
6.2/6.7 |
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2019 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
10/06/18 @ Akron |
41-17 |
+5.0
W
|
38/25 |
208/78 |
5.5/3.1 |
1/2 |
24/19 |
33/35 |
214/183 |
1/3 |
0/3 |
6.5/4.8 |
422/261 |
5.9/4.1 |
10/13/18 Kent State |
31-6 |
-11.0
W
|
48/26 |
302/146 |
6.3/5.6 |
1/0 |
16/15 |
24/29 |
206/89 |
0/1 |
1/5 |
8.2/2.6 |
508/235 |
7.0/3.9 |
10/20/18 @ Army |
30-31 |
+6.5
W
|
26/73 |
82/350 |
3.2/4.8 |
0/0 |
30/0 |
53/2 |
324/0 |
0/0 |
1/0 |
6.0/0.0 |
406/350 |
5.1/4.7 |
10/30/18 @ Buffalo |
42-51 |
+7.0
L
|
35/34 |
158/173 |
4.5/5.1 |
1/0 |
20/20 |
35/35 |
293/339 |
0/0 |
6/3 |
7.1/8.9 |
451/512 |
5.9/7.1 |
11/07/18 Ohio |
30-28 |
+4.5
W
|
31/29 |
172/232 |
5.5/8.0 |
0/1 |
20/16 |
32/27 |
187/140 |
1/0 |
3/3 |
5.3/4.7 |
359/372 |
5.4/6.3 |
11/14/18 @ Northern Ill |
13-7 |
+7.0
W
|
36/36 |
104/215 |
2.9/6.0 |
0/1 |
15/15 |
24/33 |
98/151 |
0/1 |
2/1 |
3.8/4.4 |
202/366 |
3.3/5.2 |
11/20/18 Ball St. |
42-21 |
-16.5
W
|
49/29 |
379/167 |
7.7/5.8 |
0/0 |
11/23 |
16/36 |
146/217 |
1/2 |
2/4 |
8.1/5.4 |
525/384 |
7.8/5.6 |
08/31/19 @ Iowa |
14-38 |
+22.0
L
|
24/40 |
70/231 |
2.9/5.8 |
0/1 |
17/21 |
27/30 |
175/242 |
1/0 |
1/1 |
6.3/7.8 |
245/473 |
4.7/6.7 |
09/07/19 Tennessee Tech |
48-17 |
0.0
W
|
40/35 |
190/85 |
4.8/2.4 |
1/1 |
11/23 |
18/34 |
156/197 |
0/2 |
0/1 |
8.7/5.6 |
346/282 |
6.0/4.0 |
09/14/19 @ Cincinnati |
13-35 |
+17.5
L
|
34/44 |
107/257 |
3.1/5.8 |
1/0 |
10/14 |
18/30 |
102/163 |
0/1 |
5/4 |
4.4/4.8 |
209/420 |
3.7/5.4 |
09/21/19 @ Ohio St. |
5-76 |
+38.5
L
|
36/40 |
93/238 |
2.6/6.0 |
2/1 |
7/22 |
20/30 |
73/299 |
1/0 |
5/2 |
2.9/9.3 |
166/537 |
2.7/7.5 |
09/28/19 Buffalo |
34-20 |
+3.0
W
|
49/46 |
173/329 |
3.5/7.2 |
0/2 |
8/7 |
18/20 |
106/76 |
0/2 |
2/2 |
5.3/3.5 |
279/405 |
4.0/6.0 |
10/12/19 @ Western Mich |
16-38 |
+12.5
L
|
28/35 |
128/191 |
4.6/5.5 |
0/0 |
26/15 |
46/25 |
242/124 |
3/1 |
6/2 |
4.7/4.6 |
370/315 |
4.6/5.1 |
10/19/19 Northern Ill |
27-24 |
+2.5
W
|
31/40 |
92/133 |
3.0/3.3 |
0/0 |
15/21 |
28/35 |
269/219 |
0/0 |
1/2 |
9.3/5.9 |
361/352 |
6.0/4.6 |
10/26/19 @ Kent State |
23-16 |
+2.5
W
|
41/37 |
293/141 |
7.1/3.8 |
2/1 |
13/23 |
29/44 |
174/195 |
0/1 |
1/3 |
5.8/4.1 |
467/336 |
6.6/4.0 |
11/06/19 @ Ohio |
24-21 |
+7.5
W
|
26/43 |
126/254 |
4.8/5.9 |
0/2 |
10/15 |
18/27 |
140/114 |
0/0 |
2/3 |
7.0/3.8 |
266/368 |
5.8/5.0 |
11/13/19 Bowling Green |
44-3 |
-17.0
W
|
35/45 |
198/185 |
5.7/4.1 |
1/0 |
10/11 |
16/27 |
229/69 |
1/3 |
1/0 |
13.5/2.6 |
427/254 |
8.2/3.5 |
11/20/19 Akron |
20-17 |
-30.0
L
|
48/17 |
254/73 |
5.3/4.3 |
0/0 |
10/15 |
22/25 |
104/129 |
2/0 |
2/12 |
4.3/3.5 |
358/202 |
5.0/3.7 |
11/29/19 @ Ball St. |
27-41 |
+3.5
L
|
29/50 |
107/278 |
3.7/5.6 |
0/1 |
10/26 |
19/40 |
168/299 |
2/0 |
0/3 |
8.8/7.0 |
275/577 |
5.7/6.2 |
12/07/19 @ Central Mich |
26-21 |
+6.5
W
|
33/28 |
94/114 |
2.8/4.1 |
0/0 |
14/27 |
27/42 |
193/241 |
0/1 |
1/3 |
6.9/5.4 |
287/355 |
4.7/4.9 |