Game Analysis
2-Star Best Bet – **Ucla (+7) 19 NEBRASKA 18
UCLA had to play unbeaten juggernaut Indiana in week 3, play at LSU in week 4, play Oregon in week 5, and then play at Penn State in week 6 with their backup quarterback. The Bruins played relatively well in those games but were labeled as a bad team. They are not a bad team. UCLA outplayed a good Minnesota team by 11 points from the line of scrimmage in week 7 (but lost by 4 despite outgaining the Gophers by over 100 yards) and they won at Rutgers in a Best Bet for us two weeks ago before their bye week.
The Bruins have played the toughest schedule in the nation and have only been outplayed 5.5 yards per play to 5.7 yppl. The teams that they’ve faced would outgain an average FBS team 6.6 yppl to 5.3 yppl). UCLA is 0.3 yppl better than average offensively with Ethan Garbers at quarterback and the Bruins have been 0.9 yppl better than average defensively after ranking 7th in compensated yards per play defense last season.
Nebraska is just average offensively even if I exclude their game against Rutgers played in a windstorm (just 5.8 yppl in their other 7 games against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl). Nebraska’s defense has been 0.6 yppl better than average (also excluding that Rutgers’ game in which they were outplayed).
UCLA has been a better team than Nebraska, but the Bruins’ brutally tough schedule has disguised that fact.
UCLA is a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 or more and 1-Star to +6. If you didn’t get +7 at the release you might want to wait to see if the line moves back to +7.
Rush
-
Run Plays
22.0
27.1
-
Run Yards
93.6
108.3
-
YPRP
4.3
4.0
Pass
-
Pass Comp
21.3
24.7
-
Pass Att
32.1
35.9
-
Comp %
66.2%
68.9%
-
Pass Yards
239.1
267.6
-
Sacks
2.9
1.4
-
Sack Yards
18.0
8.9
-
Sack %
8.2%
3.8%
-
Pass Plays
35.0
37.3
-
Net Pass Yards
221.1
258.7
-
YPPP
6.3
6.9
Total
-
Total Plays
57.0
64.4
-
Total Yards
314.7
367.0
-
YPPL
5.5
5.7
TO
-
Int
1.1
0.6
-
Int %
3.5%
1.6%
-
Fumbles
0.4
0.1
-
Turnovers
1.6
0.7
Rush
-
Run Plays
31.0
27.6
-
Run Yards
150.1
122.2
-
YPRP
4.8
4.4
Pass
-
Pass Comp
22.6
18.9
-
Pass Att
32.9
28.0
-
Comp %
68.7%
67.4%
-
Pass Yards
243.1
206.7
-
Sacks
1.7
2.6
-
Sack Yards
11.0
14.9
-
Sack %
4.9%
8.4%
-
Pass Plays
34.6
30.6
-
Net Pass Yards
232.1
191.9
-
YPPP
6.7
6.3
Total
-
Total Plays
65.6
58.1
-
Total Yards
382.3
314.0
-
YPPL
5.8
5.4
TO
-
Int
0.9
1.0
-
Int %
2.6%
3.6%
-
Fumbles
0.4
0.4
-
Turnovers
1.3
1.4
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2024 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
08/31/24 @ Hawaii |
16-13 |
-14.0
L
|
19/23 |
73/77 |
3.8/3.3 |
0/1 |
19/24 |
38/41 |
270/191 |
2/2 |
1/5 |
6.9/4.2 |
343/268 |
5.9/3.9 |
09/14/24 Indiana |
13-42 |
+3.0
L
|
24/29 |
109/123 |
4.5/4.2 |
1/0 |
15/25 |
24/33 |
131/307 |
1/0 |
2/0 |
5.0/9.3 |
240/430 |
4.8/6.9 |
09/21/24 @ LSU |
17-34 |
+24.0
W
|
17/27 |
78/103 |
4.6/3.8 |
1/0 |
22/32 |
36/44 |
242/352 |
1/0 |
5/0 |
5.9/8.0 |
320/455 |
5.5/6.4 |
09/28/24 Oregon |
13-34 |
+25.5
W
|
19/34 |
86/156 |
4.5/4.6 |
0/0 |
14/31 |
24/42 |
113/280 |
2/1 |
4/0 |
4.0/6.7 |
199/436 |
4.2/5.7 |
10/05/24 @ Penn St. |
11-27 |
+29.5
W
|
27/28 |
133/96 |
4.9/3.4 |
0/0 |
22/17 |
30/24 |
147/228 |
0/0 |
2/1 |
4.6/9.1 |
280/324 |
4.7/6.1 |
10/12/24 Minnesota |
17-21 |
+4.0
T
|
23/21 |
55/61 |
2.4/2.9 |
0/0 |
25/26 |
35/37 |
276/173 |
2/0 |
3/3 |
7.3/4.3 |
331/234 |
5.4/3.8 |
10/19/24 @ Rutgers |
35-32 |
+6.0
W
|
25/28 |
121/142 |
4.8/5.1 |
1/0 |
32/18 |
38/30 |
369/280 |
0/1 |
3/1 |
9.0/9.0 |
490/422 |
7.4/7.2 |
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2024 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
08/31/24 UTEP |
40-7 |
-27.5
W
|
46/22 |
270/84 |
5.9/3.8 |
1/0 |
25/16 |
35/26 |
293/145 |
0/2 |
1/2 |
8.1/5.2 |
563/229 |
6.9/4.6 |
09/07/24 Colorado |
28-10 |
-6.5
W
|
33/18 |
155/60 |
4.7/3.3 |
0/1 |
23/24 |
30/40 |
181/221 |
0/1 |
1/5 |
5.8/4.9 |
336/281 |
5.3/4.5 |
09/14/24 Northern Iowa |
34-3 |
0.0
W
|
22/36 |
142/140 |
6.5/3.9 |
0/0 |
20/16 |
26/32 |
281/148 |
1/1 |
0/1 |
10.8/4.5 |
423/288 |
8.8/4.2 |
09/20/24 Illinois |
24-31 |
-7.5
L
|
28/37 |
103/173 |
3.7/4.7 |
0/2 |
24/21 |
35/27 |
270/208 |
1/0 |
4/2 |
6.9/7.2 |
373/381 |
5.6/5.8 |
09/28/24 @ Purdue |
28-10 |
-10.0
W
|
31/25 |
169/87 |
5.5/3.5 |
0/0 |
16/18 |
26/25 |
236/139 |
0/1 |
1/5 |
8.7/4.6 |
405/226 |
7.0/4.1 |
10/05/24 Rutgers |
14-7 |
-7.0
T
|
35/28 |
136/107 |
3.9/3.8 |
0/0 |
13/15 |
27/37 |
101/157 |
1/2 |
4/4 |
3.3/3.8 |
237/264 |
3.6/3.8 |
10/19/24 @ Indiana |
7-56 |
+6.0
L
|
27/29 |
68/233 |
2.5/8.0 |
2/0 |
29/24 |
46/30 |
233/271 |
3/1 |
2/1 |
4.9/8.7 |
301/504 |
4.0/8.4 |
10/26/24 @ Ohio St. |
17-21 |
+25.5
W
|
30/26 |
144/78 |
4.8/3.0 |
0/0 |
21/13 |
32/16 |
131/211 |
1/1 |
3/2 |
3.7/11.7 |
275/289 |
4.2/6.6 |