Game Analysis

Lean – Under (60.5) – Central Florida (-15.5)  37   Marshall  21

Monday, December 23 – 11:30 am Pacific

My math favors UCF by 19.7 points (with a total of 59.5 points after adjusting for the wind and rain expected) and I could waste time discussing matchups and going over the stats, but this game comes down to how much UCF really cares. The Golden Knights were in major bowl games against highly ranked SEC teams that last two seasons and had the same goal this season only to find themselves as a huge favorite against a worse than average Marshall team that’s not as good as their 8-4 record suggests. Pre-New Year’s favorite of more than 7 (excluding major bowl games played in December) are just 50-92-3 ATS over the years and UCF applies to a 7-56-2 ATS subset of that trend. It’s possible that UCF could come out motivated and they’d likely win by 20 points or more if that’s the case. But, history suggests that the Knights will be less than enthusiastic and Marshall coach Doc Holiday is 6-0 straight up and 6-0 ATS in bowl games (although never been a dog anywhere close to this much). I’d stay away from the side, as the line is much lower than it should be and seems to be incorporating a less than max effort from UCF, but I’ll lean under based on a 40-12-1 bowl game under situation.