UCF @

Florida

Sat, Oct 5
SEC Network
4:45 PM Pacific
Rotation: 315
Odds: Florida +1, Total: 61.5

Game Analysis

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2-Star Best Bet – **Central Florida (-2.5)  37   FLORIDA  27

UCF was a huge disappointment last week in their home loss to Colorado but I expect the Golden Knights to bounce back with a good effort and a lot of offense against a Florida team that struggles defensively.

UCF didn’t play well offensively last week (just 5.5 yppl) but they’ve averaged over 500 yards of total offense at 6.7 yards per play (with their starters in) in 3 games against FBS teams, including 519 yads at 6.8 yppl on the road at TCU against a better than average Horned Frogs defense. UCF has been 1.3 yppl better than average offensively even with last week’s sub-par game and they should have an easy time moving the ball against a Florida defense that’s given up an average of 502 yards at 6.5 yppl to the 3 FBS teams that they’ve faced. Those 3 teams – Miami-Florida, Texas A&M, and Miss State – would combine to average 6.2 yppl against an average defensive team and the 37 points average that they allowed to the two good offensive teams that they faced (Miami and A&M) is what my model projects for UCF in this game.

Florida’s offense racked up 499 yards at 7.8 yppl last week against a worse than average Mississippi State defense and that unit has been 0.8 yppl better than average in their 3 games against FBS teams (6.3 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team), but it’s a boom or bust attack that has averaged only 57 plays per game and just 356 total yards and UCF’s defense is good enough (0.4 yppl better than average) to keep them in check while the Knight’s ball-control offense (76 plays per game) consistently puts points on the board. Florida scored just 17 points and 20 points against the two better than average defensive teams that they faced while looking great against bad defensive teams (45 points versus both Samford and Miss State). TCU is closer to the level of Miami and Texas A&M defensively than they are to Samford and Miss State and I project just 27 points for the Gators in this game.

UCF is a 2-Star Best Bet at -2.5 to -115 odds and a 1-Star Best Bet up to -3 -115 odds.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • UCF
  • Florida
UCF
Offense
Defense

Rush

  • Run Plays 50.3 24.5
  • Run Yards 332.3 89.5
  • YPRP 6.6 3.7




Pass





  • Pass Comp 14.5 23.5
  • Pass Att 24.0 34.8
  • Comp % 60.4% 67.6%
  • Pass Yards 217.5 230.5
  • Sacks 2.0 0.8
  • Sack Yards 9.8 5.5
  • Sack % 7.7% 2.1%
  • Pass Plays 26.0 35.5
  • Net Pass Yards 207.8 225.0
  • YPPP 8.0 6.3

Total

  • Total Plays 76.3 60.0
  • Total Yards 540.0 314.5
  • YPPL 7.1 5.2

TO


  • Int 0.8 1.3
  • Int % 3.1% 3.6%
  • Fumbles 1.0 0.0
  • Turnovers 1.8 1.3
 
  • Points 39.5 24.8
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