Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Florida (-6.5 -115)  34   Central Florida  22

Florida has some key players opting out but they still have a significant talent edge and the Golden Knights are an overrated team with a terrible quarterback.

Mikey Keene took over for injured star QB Dillon Gabriel in week 4 and Keene averaged only 5.5 yards per pass play against a schedule of mostly bad defensive teams that would allow 7.2 yppp to an average quarterback. UCF runs the ball well, averaging 5.8 yards per rushing play in Keene’s 9 starts (against teams that would allow 5.1 yprp) but overall the UCF attack is 0.4 yards per play worse than average. Florida’s defense was just 0.3 yppl better than average this season and will be worse without # tackler Mohamoud Diabate and DE Zach Carter, who had 8 sacks. Those two are worth 2.7 points combined according to my algorithm and the Gators are now just barely better than average defensively. UCF is projected to gain only 332 yards at 5.5 yppl even with the calm weather projected for this game.

Florida took a hit on offense with the departure of top WR Jacob Copeland, who led the team with 10.1 yards per target. Copeland is worth 1.6 points to Florida’s offense. The Gators’ rushing numbers also needed to be adjusted down with backup QB Anthony Richardson not playing, as he had 428 yards on 48 runs. Emory Jones is going to play despite planning on transferring but I believe he’ll be motivated to play well in order to help him find a good transfer destination. Florida’s run offense is still 0.6 yards per rushing play better than average while Jones was 1.1 yards per pass play better than average. The Knights have a bad run defense that rates at 0.7 yprp worse than average and they gave up 6.7 yprp in 4 games against average or better running teams this season (Louisville, Cincy, Tulane and SMU). UCF does have a good pass defense that allowed just 5.0 yppp, but they also were lucky to Memphis’ backup quarterback, who was terrible, and face SMU without star WR Gray. UCF still rates at 0.9 yppp better than average defending the pass, which is a bit better than Florida’s offensive pass rating with Jones and without Copeland (+0.7 yppp). The Gators are projected to average 6.4 yprp and 6.4 yppp, which should be good enough to outscore UCF’s sub-par offense by at least 7 points.

The math favors Florida by 11.6 points with a total of 57.0 points and there is no significant evidence that suggests teams with interim coaches tend to play worse in bowl games than teams with their head coach intact. Florida is a Strong Opinion at -7 -110 odds or better.