Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *Alabama-Birmingham (-17.5)  38   LOUISIANA TECH  13

UAB is a bully, as the Blazers tend to beat up on bad teams and lose big when facing superior teams, which was the case in last week’s 10-41 loss at LSU. I expect UAB to bounce-back with an easy win against a defensively horrible Louisiana Tech team that is playing a backup quarterback that is about 10 points worse than starter Parker McNeil, who has a broken index finger on his throwing hand. McNeil has averaged 7.9 yards on his 230 pass plays this season (against teams that would allow 6.6 yppp to an average QB) while backup Landry Lyddy has averaged only 5.8 yppp on his 114 pass plays while facing mostly bad defensive teams that would combine to allow 8.0 yppp to an average quarterback. That’s a significant difference that has not been fully priced in and UAB’s defense (0.3 yppl better than average) should control a Bulldogs’ attack that is 1.4 yards per play worse than average with Lyddy at quarterback. Lyddy could only lead his offense to 21 points last week against Charlotte, who has the worst defense in the nation and the Bulldogs managed just 7 points against UTSA the previous week. UAB is much better defensively than UTSA and the 13 points projected may be generous.

UAB’s offense, meanwhile, is 0.7 yppl better than average with Dylan Hopkins at quarterback. Hopkins missed nearly 3 games but returned two weeks ago for the Blazers’ 41-21 win over North Texas before struggling last week as expected. Louisiana Tech’s defense is horrible, as the Bulldogs have allowed 38 points per game and 6.4 yppl to teams that would average just 5.3 yppl against an average defensive team. UAB should be able to reach that number of points in this game and the Blazers are 20-7-1 ATS as a favorite of more than 10 points since they revived the football program in 2017, including 5-1 ATS as big road favorites. UAB is also 16-6-1 ATS after a loss (6-1-1 laying more than 10 points) and I suspect that they’ll be motivated to inflict a beating on an inferior team after taking a beating last week at LSU.

UAB is a 1-Star Best Bet at -18 points or less (Strong Opinion up to -19.5).