Game Analysis

Brigham Young (-6)  30   Alabama-Birmingham  23

Note: BYU starting QB Jaren Hall is doubtful to play but Baylor Romney has been a bit better throwing the ball in his career than Hall has been. Hall’s running (409 yards on 49 runs) will be missed (worth 0.9 points) but Romney has been 1.5 yards per pass play better than average on 58 pass plays this season and has averaged 8.5 yppp on 183 career pass plays (against teams that would allow 7.0 yppp to an average QB).  Romney’s career pass rating has been 0.1 yppp better than average than Hall’s career rating. Overall, it’s a slight downgrade due to Hall’s running but certainly not anything that would concern me if you like BYU. I still have BYU by 7 points.

In good weather I would have leaned with BYU and their big-play pass attack, but it looks like wind and rain in Shreveport on Saturday afternoon and that gives UAB a better chance to stay within a touchdown of the Cougars.

UAB runs a slow-paced run-first attack and uses play-action to try to get the ball down the field through the air (the Blazers average 15.3 yards per catch). Throwing the ball deep through wind and rain is not going to be easy but the Blazers, who average 5.6 yards per rushing play, should be able to run the ball if leading rusher DeWayne McBride’s ankle injury has healed to where he’s close to 100%. McBride ran for 1188 yards at 6.8 ypr this season while his backup averaged a modest 5.1 ypr and I project 5.4 yards per rushing play for the Blazers if McBride is 100%. UAB quarterback Dylan Hopkins is slightly better than average and BYU’s pass defense is slightly worse than average, but I project only 6.2 yards per pass play with the wind and rain factored in. Overall, the weather adjusted projection is for 324 yards at 5.7 yards per play for UAB in this game

BYU’s offense is well balanced, as the Cougars are 0.6 yprp better than average on the ground and have been 1.4 yppp better than average through the air this season. The aerial attack is even better with Gunner Romney back healthy and leading receiver Neil Pau’u out with an injury. Romney missed 5 games this season, but he averages 12.3 yards per target and the Cougars are certainly better when he’s healthy. Pau’u may have led the Cougars in targets and catches this season, but he averaged a modest 8.2 yards per target while the rest of the receivers combined for 12.0 yards per target. Quarterback Jaren Hall averaged 10.8 yards per pass play in week 12 against Georgia Southern, which was the only game this season without Pau’u and with Romney and the Cougars project to be 2.2 yppp better than average with their current set of wide receivers.

The weather will have more of a negative affect on BYU’s offense, as the aerial attack won’t be as good and they’re likely to run the ball more in inclement weather, which won’t be that easy against a very good UAB run defense that allowed just 3.9 yprp this season to 11 FBS opponents that would combine to average 4.8 yprp against an average defensive team. The Blazers are 0.1 yppp worse than average defending the pass after adjusting for quarterbacks faced and BYU is still projected to average 8.1 yppp in this game even with the wind and rain.

The total was set too high in this game most likely due to the scoring of these two teams, but UAB’s defense had really bad redzone luck, as the Blazers allowed 5.6 points per redzone opportunity, which is extremely high and is 0.8 points per red zone higher than they would be projected given how good their defense was overall this season. UAB also scored more points per red zone (5.2 PPRZ) then projected while BYU’s offense averaged a very high 5.6 PPRZ, which is also likely to regress. Overall, these teams combined for a total of 4.7 points more total scoring per game than what their PPRZ would be projected, which is partially why my model leans a bit towards the under in this game. I think it’s best to pass on this game.