Tulane @

(25) Tulsa

Thu, Nov 19
ESPN
4:30 PM Pacific
Rotation: 425
Odds: Tulsa -5.5, Total: 55

Game Analysis

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TULSA (-5.5)  28   Tulane  22

Tulane has been better offensively since Michael Pratt took over at quarterback early in the Waves’ third game but Pratt is still below average throwing the ball (6.0 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.9 yppp to an average QB) and the Green Wave will likely not run as well as they usually do against a strong Tulsa defensive front that’s yielded just 4.2 yards per rushing play (to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yprp against an average defense). No team has run for more than 4.7 yprp against the Golden Hurricane defense, including good running teams Oklahoma State (just 4.3 yprp against Tulsa) and UCF (just 3.9 yprp). Tulane is projected to run for just 4.5 yprp and 4.8 yppp against a good Tulsa pass defense that doesn’t give up the big pass plays that Tulane depends on (Tulsa allows just 9.8 yards per completion).

Tulsa won’t be able to run either but Zach Smith should have good numbers against a horrible Tulane pass defense that’s allowed 7.5 yppp against quarterbacks that would average just 6.2 yppp against an average defense.

There will be some wind that could affect passing in this game (although projected weather is only 1.2 points below average scoring) and Tulane has really slowed their pace on offense since early in the season, as they’ve averaged just 2.14 plays per minute of possession in their last 3 games, compared to an above average 2.38 plays per minute for the season. I used their pace in 6 games with Pratt at quarterback and that’s part of the reason my projected score is lower than the total. I’ll lean under.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Tulane
  • Tulsa
TUL
Offense
Defense

Rush

  • Run Plays 39.2 40.4
  • Run Yards 225.9 144.2
  • YPRP 6.2 4.1




Pass





  • Pass Comp 13.8 18.8
  • Pass Att 26.3 31.0
  • Comp % 52.3% 60.6%
  • Pass Yards 180.2 274.8
  • Sacks 2.4 3.0
  • Sack Yards 15.6 20.9
  • Sack % 8.5% 8.8%
  • Pass Plays 28.8 34.0
  • Net Pass Yards 164.7 253.9
  • YPPP 5.7 7.5

Total

  • Total Plays 68.0 74.4
  • Total Yards 406.1 419.0
  • YPPL 6.0 5.6

TO


  • Int 0.6 0.7
  • Int % 2.1% 2.2%
  • Fumbles 0.4 0.9
  • Turnovers 1.0 1.6
 
  • Points 36.7 27.6
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