Game Analysis

Lean – NEVADA (+1.5)  29   Tulane  27

Update: Tulane’s best defensive player, Patrick Johnson (10 sacks and 14.5 total tackles for loss) will not play due to the death of his father and 1^st-Team All-AAC DE Cam Sample is not listed on the depth chart. NT DeAndre Williams is also going to miss the game due to the birth of his child and those significant defensive absences are worth a few points. I now favor Nevada to win.

Tulane has an advantage in the heavy winds that are expected in Boise this afternoon, as the Green Wave have a run-oriented offense while Nevada is looking to pass 65% of the time. The wind should have a significant affect on passing, which hurts the Wolf Pack more than it does Tulane, but the absences from the Green Wave defense tip the scales towards Nevada. Despite the conditions that favor Tulane, the math is now picking Nevada to win after adjusting for the weather and injuries.

Tulane’s rushing attack averaged 5.9 yards per rushing play but the Green Wave had a couple of really good games on the ground against bad run defenses (8.5 ypr against Southern Miss and ECU) that skewed their average up and only once in five games did Tulane average 5.0 yprp or more against an average of better run defense. Nevada allowed just 4.7 yprp for the season despite giving up 9.0 yprp to San Jose State, which was the only time the Wolf Pack allowed more than 5.0 yprp. Nevada’s defense matches up well against a run-heavy Tulane offense and quarterback Michael Pratt hasn’t been good enough (1.0 yards per pass play worse than average) to take full advantage of a Nevada pass defense that has been 0.9 yppp worse than average (6.1 yppp allowed to quarterbacks that would combine to average only 5.2 yppp against an average defense).

Nevada’s offense is based on the arm talent of Carson Strong, who completed 69.4% of his passes with 22 touchdowns and just 4 interceptions while averaging 7.1 yards per pass play (although against teams that would allow 6.9 yppp to an average FBS quarterback). Tulane has been 0.7 yppp worse than average defending the pass and the Green Wave are fortunate to be playing this game in windy conditions that will hinder the Wolf Pack aerial attack. Tulane has a very good run defense (4.1 yprp allowed to teams that would average 4.8 yprp against an average defense) and a mediocre Nevada ground game isn’t likely to do much damage. It will up to Strong to perform in adverse conditions for Nevada to win this game.