Tulane @

Houston

Fri, Sep 30
ESPN
4:00 PM Pacific
Rotation: 105
Odds: Houston -4.5, Total: 53.5

Game Analysis

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Note: Tulane QB Michael Pratt is OUT tonight. I’ve adjusted my prediction to reflect that injury.

Lean – Under (53.5) – HOUSTON (-4.5)  25   Tulane  20

Originally posted as Lean – Under (55) – HOUSTON (-2.5)  25   Tulane  22

Both of these teams are better defensively than they are offensively and both teams run their offense at a slower than average pace. That combination should make it difficult to get to 55 total points, which is a bit above the national average for total points in regulation.

Tulane’s 3 games against FBS foes have averaged just 43.3 total points and the 68.5 total points per game that have been scored in Houston’s 4 games are buoyed by a total of 47 points being scored in their two overtime games. The Cougars’ games have averaged 56.8 points in regulation, which is relatively low given that their 4 opponents are collectively good on offense (0.7 yppl better than average) and bad on defense (0.4 yppl worse than average).

The projected scoring goes down a few points with Pratt out for Tulane and I expect the Green Wave to run the ball more, which will shorten the game.

Looks like solid value on the Under 52 or higher in this game with Pratt now out for Tulane.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Tulane
  • Houston
TUL
Offense
Defense

Rush

  • Run Plays 39.8 38.3
  • Run Yards 190.8 132.5
  • YPRP 4.8 3.5




Pass





  • Pass Comp 17.5 11.8
  • Pass Att 27.0 20.3
  • Comp % 64.8% 58.0%
  • Pass Yards 248.8 102.5
  • Sacks 1.8 1.0
  • Sack Yards 10.0 6.0
  • Sack % 6.1% 4.7%
  • Pass Plays 28.8 21.3
  • Net Pass Yards 238.8 96.5
  • YPPP 8.3 4.5

Total

  • Total Plays 68.5 59.5
  • Total Yards 429.5 229.0
  • YPPL 6.3 3.8

TO


  • Int 0.8 1.0
  • Int % 2.8% 4.9%
  • Fumbles 0.8 0.0
  • Turnovers 1.5 1.0
 
  • Points 33.8 11.8
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