Troy @

UL Monroe

Sat, Sep 25
5:00 PM Pacific
Rotation: 403
Odds: UL Monroe +23.5, Total: 50

Game Analysis

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1-Star Best Bet – UL Monroe Team Total Under (13.5 -115)

Alternate play is game Under (50) at 48 or more

Troy (-23.5)  34   UL MONROE  7

UL Monroe was a horrible offensive team last season (16.3 ppg) against a worse than average slate of opposing defenses and learning a new offense with new quarterbacks has made the Warhawks even worse on the attack side of the ball. ULM gained just 99 total yards at 1.6 yards per play against Kentucky and followed that up last week with just 250 yards at 3.4 yppl in a 12-7 win over FCS team Jackson State. This week the Warhawks overmatched offensive line (just 2.5 yards per rushing play and allowing 5 sacks per game) will be overmatches by an aggressive Troy defense that’s averaged 5.7 sacks per game and given up for 11.0 points per game and 3.9 yards per play. The Trojans have faced two bad offensive teams (although not as bad as ULM is) and allowed just 3 points on 189 yards (3.9 yppl) to Southern and just 9 points on 156 yards (2.4 yppl) to Southern Miss. Troy also allowed just 5.4 yppl and 21 points to a good Liberty offense, so they are certainly a better than average FBS defense this season.

I’m assuming that UL Monroe’s offense can’t continue to be as bad as it’s been (I rate them 1.5 yppl better than they’ve been) and that Troy’s defense won’t continue to be as good as they’ve been and I still project just 7.4 points for the Warhawks in this game (the projection using this year’s games only would be for zero points).

My ratings project an under for the game (just 41 total points) but most of that value is on ULM to score significantly less than expected.

I’ll play the UL Monroe Team Total Under 13 or higher. The alternate play is the game under 48 or more.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Troy
  • UL Monroe
TROY
Offense
Defense

Rush

  • Run Plays 27.7 31.7
  • Run Yards 108.3 129.7
  • YPRP 3.9 4.1




Pass





  • Pass Comp 22.3 13.7
  • Pass Att 32.7 22.0
  • Comp % 68.4% 62.1%
  • Pass Yards 255.3 139.7
  • Sacks 3.0 5.7
  • Sack Yards 23.7 40.3
  • Sack % 8.4% 20.5%
  • Pass Plays 35.7 27.7
  • Net Pass Yards 231.7 99.3
  • YPPP 6.5 3.6

Total

  • Total Plays 63.3 59.3
  • Total Yards 340.0 229.0
  • YPPL 5.4 3.9

TO


  • Int 0.7 2.0
  • Int % 2.1% 9.1%
  • Fumbles 0.7 0.0
  • Turnovers 1.3 2.0
 
  • Points 29.7 11.0
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