Game Analysis
Lean – North Texas (+7) 28 Troy 32
North Texas has been underrated all season (8-5 ATS) and I see some value with the Mean Green even without top rusher Jeffery Wilson, who missed the last two games and is listed as out for this game. I don’t expect North Texas to be able to run well against a good Troy defensive front that allowed just 3.9 yards per rushing play this season but Eagles’ quarterback Mason Fine is a good quarterback (64% completions and 7.1 yards per pass play) and my math model projects 6.9 yppp in this game against a below average Troy pass defense (6.1 yppp allowed to quarterbacks that would average only 5.7 yppp against an average team). Overall the math projects 403 yards at 5.6 yards per play for North Texas in this game.
Veteran Troy quarterback Brandon Silvers, a 4-year starter, has below average numbers (6.6 yppp against teams that would allow 7.2 yppp to an average quarterback) but North Texas gives up a lot of big plays through the air and the Eagles rate at 1.2 yppp worse than average (6.8 yppp allowed to quarterbacks that would average just 5.6 yppp). My math projects Silvers to average 7.2 yppp in this game and for the Trojans to rack up 442 yards at 6.2 yards per play.
Troy is a better team but my math model favors the Trojans by just 4 points in this game and I’ll lean with North Texas plus the points. I have no opinion on the total at the current number but I’d lean under at 63 points or higher.
Rush
-
Run Plays
28.6
34.7
-
Run Yards
139.3
118.6
-
YPRP
5.1
3.9
Pass
-
Pass Comp
21.6
19.7
-
Pass Att
34.9
32.3
-
Comp %
61.7%
61.1%
-
Pass Yards
252.0
234.7
-
Sacks
1.3
3.1
-
Sack Yards
7.0
17.8
-
Sack %
3.5%
8.7%
-
Pass Plays
36.2
35.4
-
Net Pass Yards
245.0
216.9
-
YPPP
6.8
6.1
Total
-
Total Plays
64.8
70.1
-
Total Yards
391.3
353.3
-
YPPL
6.0
5.0
TO
-
Int
0.5
1.4
-
Int %
1.3%
4.2%
-
Fumbles
1.0
0.6
-
Turnovers
1.5
1.9
Rush
-
Run Plays
32.8
41.4
-
Run Yards
157.0
213.6
-
YPRP
5.3
5.4
Pass
-
Pass Comp
23.4
15.8
-
Pass Att
36.5
29.1
-
Comp %
64.2%
54.2%
-
Pass Yards
295.8
220.3
-
Sacks
2.5
1.5
-
Sack Yards
18.0
10.8
-
Sack %
6.4%
4.9%
-
Pass Plays
39.0
30.6
-
Net Pass Yards
277.8
209.6
-
YPPP
7.1
6.9
Total
-
Total Plays
71.8
72.0
-
Total Yards
452.8
433.9
-
YPPL
6.3
6.0
TO
-
Int
1.1
0.5
-
Int %
3.0%
1.7%
-
Fumbles
0.7
0.5
-
Turnovers
1.8
1.0
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 09/02/17 @ Boise St. |
13-24 |
+10.0
L
|
25/40 |
93/172 |
3.7/4.3 |
2/1 |
17/19 |
34/32 |
122/185 |
1/1 |
4/4 |
3.2/5.1 |
215/357 |
3.4/4.7 |
| 09/09/17 Alabama State |
34-7 |
0.0
W
|
35/29 |
259/106 |
7.4/3.7 |
0/0 |
33/15 |
42/28 |
354/62 |
1/0 |
0/3 |
8.4/2.0 |
613/168 |
8.0/2.8 |
| 09/16/17 @ New Mexico St. |
27-24 |
-7.5
L
|
36/16 |
197/75 |
5.5/4.7 |
0/0 |
25/32 |
40/45 |
281/331 |
0/0 |
1/0 |
6.9/7.4 |
478/406 |
6.2/6.7 |
| 09/23/17 Akron |
22-17 |
-15.5
L
|
26/33 |
137/117 |
5.3/3.5 |
1/1 |
29/20 |
42/40 |
314/259 |
0/2 |
1/2 |
7.3/6.2 |
451/376 |
6.5/5.0 |
| 09/30/17 @ LSU |
24-21 |
+20.5
W
|
38/29 |
218/162 |
5.7/5.6 |
2/2 |
16/21 |
28/32 |
145/266 |
0/2 |
3/0 |
4.7/8.3 |
363/428 |
5.3/7.0 |
| 10/11/17 South Alabama |
8-19 |
-18.0
L
|
18/37 |
53/89 |
2.9/2.4 |
3/0 |
25/11 |
47/20 |
253/149 |
1/1 |
2/4 |
5.2/6.2 |
306/238 |
4.6/3.9 |
| 10/21/17 @ Georgia St. |
34-10 |
-9.5
W
|
21/29 |
121/76 |
5.8/2.6 |
1/0 |
25/25 |
35/40 |
335/231 |
1/1 |
0/4 |
9.6/5.3 |
456/307 |
8.1/4.2 |
| 10/28/17 Georgia Southern |
38-16 |
-23.5
L
|
30/60 |
231/246 |
7.7/4.1 |
0/0 |
10/6 |
20/12 |
142/56 |
0/1 |
0/1 |
7.1/4.3 |
373/302 |
7.5/4.1 |
| 11/02/17 Idaho |
24-21 |
-18.0
L
|
34/26 |
191/132 |
5.6/5.1 |
1/0 |
20/24 |
30/35 |
206/246 |
1/0 |
1/6 |
6.6/6.0 |
397/378 |
6.1/5.6 |
| 11/11/17 @ Coastal Carolina |
42-17 |
-17.0
W
|
33/31 |
160/125 |
4.8/4.0 |
0/0 |
21/14 |
33/28 |
251/133 |
1/2 |
1/6 |
7.4/3.9 |
411/258 |
6.1/4.0 |
| 11/24/17 Texas State |
62-9 |
-24.0
W
|
31/41 |
154/116 |
5.0/2.8 |
0/2 |
26/14 |
34/21 |
418/114 |
0/2 |
0/3 |
12.3/4.8 |
572/230 |
8.8/3.5 |
| 12/02/17 @ Arkansas St. |
32-25 |
0.0
W
|
23/40 |
54/190 |
2.3/4.8 |
1/0 |
23/31 |
41/50 |
228/416 |
0/3 |
1/4 |
5.4/7.7 |
282/606 |
4.3/6.4 |
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
| Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
| 09/02/17 Lamar |
59-14 |
0.0
W
|
57/31 |
449/105 |
7.9/3.4 |
1/1 |
17/20 |
24/41 |
221/163 |
0/1 |
2/2 |
8.5/3.8 |
670/268 |
8.1/3.6 |
| 09/09/17 @ SMU |
32-54 |
+13.5
L
|
22/31 |
101/115 |
4.6/3.7 |
1/0 |
32/22 |
47/41 |
393/320 |
2/1 |
5/2 |
7.6/7.4 |
494/435 |
6.7/5.9 |
| 09/16/17 @ Iowa |
14-31 |
+21.5
W
|
16/56 |
120/255 |
7.5/4.6 |
1/2 |
18/16 |
28/27 |
185/186 |
1/0 |
1/1 |
6.4/6.6 |
305/441 |
6.8/5.3 |
| 09/23/17 UAB |
46-43 |
-13.0
L
|
42/32 |
305/113 |
7.3/3.5 |
2/1 |
15/17 |
29/36 |
240/282 |
0/1 |
2/4 |
7.7/7.1 |
545/395 |
7.5/5.5 |
| 09/30/17 @ Southern Miss |
43-28 |
+7.5
W
|
43/27 |
183/159 |
4.3/5.9 |
1/0 |
24/19 |
40/42 |
364/256 |
1/0 |
1/2 |
8.9/5.8 |
547/415 |
6.5/5.8 |
| 10/14/17 UTSA |
29-26 |
+2.0
W
|
28/40 |
130/179 |
4.6/4.5 |
0/0 |
20/13 |
34/24 |
328/209 |
1/0 |
3/1 |
8.9/8.4 |
458/388 |
7.0/6.0 |
| 10/21/17 @ Florida Atl. |
31-69 |
+3.5
L
|
32/47 |
147/377 |
4.6/8.0 |
1/0 |
31/24 |
47/35 |
274/348 |
2/0 |
1/0 |
5.7/9.9 |
421/725 |
5.3/8.8 |
| 10/28/17 Old Dominion |
45-38 |
-11.0
L
|
39/47 |
163/211 |
4.2/4.5 |
1/1 |
25/21 |
36/35 |
296/175 |
1/2 |
1/1 |
8.0/4.9 |
459/386 |
6.0/4.7 |
| 11/04/17 @ Louisiana Tech |
24-23 |
+4.5
W
|
37/39 |
224/168 |
6.1/4.3 |
0/0 |
23/16 |
37/28 |
197/148 |
1/0 |
2/2 |
5.1/4.9 |
421/316 |
5.5/4.6 |
| 11/11/17 UTEP |
45-10 |
-22.5
W
|
39/32 |
259/100 |
6.6/3.1 |
1/0 |
23/16 |
35/32 |
213/131 |
0/1 |
0/0 |
6.1/4.1 |
472/231 |
6.4/3.6 |
| 11/18/17 Army |
52-49 |
-2.5
W
|
31/67 |
125/534 |
4.0/8.0 |
0/1 |
24/1 |
36/3 |
364/27 |
1/0 |
2/0 |
9.6/9.0 |
489/561 |
7.1/8.0 |
| 11/25/17 @ Rice |
30-14 |
-12.5
W
|
38/39 |
220/193 |
5.8/4.9 |
0/0 |
18/6 |
25/16 |
167/89 |
1/1 |
4/3 |
5.8/4.7 |
387/282 |
5.8/4.9 |
| 12/02/17 @ Florida Atl. |
17-41 |
+12.0
L
|
26/40 |
123/288 |
4.7/7.2 |
0/1 |
28/18 |
44/30 |
312/344 |
2/0 |
8/2 |
6.0/10.8 |
435/632 |
5.6/8.8 |
Troy
vs 
North Texas