Game Analysis

Toledo (-7)  32  Florida International  25

The total on this game opened at 67 points and has plummeted due to extremely windy conditions (27 mph with gusts into the 40s) and my weather algorithm projects 8 fewer points than projected to be scored due to weather. High winds also tend to favor the team that can run the ball better and that team is Toledo. Toledo averaged 237 yards at 6.0 yards per rushing play against FBS opponents that would combine to allow only 5.1 yprp to an average team. Surprisingly, the rushing numbers improved after losing quarterback Mitch Guadagni, who was leading the team in rushing when he was finally shut down heading into week 10. Running backs Koback and Thompkins raised their level of play down the stretch and combined for 6.1 ypr this season and the Rockets should have no trouble moving the ball on the ground against a soft FIU defensive front that allowed 5.6 yards per rushing play to teams that would combine to average only 4.7 yprp against an average defensive team. Rockets’ backup Eli Peters improved over final 4 games of the regular season and overall he was just 0.3 yards per pass play worse than average. FIU is 0.5 yppp worse than average defensively but I don’t expect Toledo to throw the ball very often, as they should run for about 7 yards a carry.

Toledo also doesn’t defend the run well, as the Rockets allowed 5.8 yprp to teams that would combine to average 4.9 yprp against an average defense, but Florida International is well below average running the ball (5.0 yprp against teams that would allow 5.6 yprp to an average team) and projected to average 1.5 fewer yards per rush than Toledo, which is likely to be key in this game given the conditions. Former Bowling Green quarterback James Morgan had a solid season but his 7.0 yards per pass play came against teams that would allow 7.4 yppp to an average quarterback but Morgan is reportedly not going to play. Backup Christian Alexander was neck and neck with Morgan for the starting job entering the season and he also completed 65% of his passes and his compensated stats on 29 pass plays was better than Morgan’s compensated passing numbers. So, I don’t think an adjustment is needed. Toledo’s pass defense, while bad (0.7 yppp worse than average) is 0.4 yppp better than what Morgan has faced on average this season.

Each quarterback is projected to average about 7 yards per pass prior to adjusting for the wind, but Toledo’ superior rushing attack should make the difference in the very windy conditions. My math favors Toledo by 8 points and projects 57 total points after adjusting for the weather. This line jumped after it was announced that FIU QB Morgan would be out but I really don’t see that making any difference except that now I have no opinion whereas I would have leaned with Toledo at -4.5.

Note: The statistics in the math model projections included in the emails are not adjusted for weather. I only adjust the points scored for each team. In the case of this game, if you’re playing props, you should assume both teams to run the ball more often, throw with less efficiency, and for there to be fewer total plays (due to more running).