Toledo @

Central Mich

Sat, Oct 16
12:30 PM Pacific
Rotation: 177
Odds: Central Mich +5, Total: 53

Game Analysis

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1-Star Best Bet – *Toledo (-5)  34   CENTRAL MICHIGAN  21

Toledo managed to lose as a double-digit favorite to Northern Illinois last week despite averaging 7.0 yards per play and giving up only 5.0 yppl. That deceiving loss has added even more value to a team that is average on a national scale offensively (6.3 yppl against teams that would allow 6.3 yppl) and strong defensively. The Rockets have yielded only 17.5 points per game and 4.6 yards per play to a schedule of teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average FBS defense. Central Michigan has been 0.9 yppl worse than average offensively for the season but they’ve been only 0.4 yppl worse than average with Daniel Richardson at quarterback and I expect the Richardson will start again despite being listed as questionable, as he played last week with his injured shoulder when he was listed as doubtful all week. A key Chippewa that won’t be playing is receiver JaCorey Sullivan, who has averaged 9.4 yards on his 39 targets this season. The 3 receivers trying to fill the void have combined for just 6.8 yards per target this season, so the aerial attack likely won’t be as good. Toledo has allowed just 53.6% completions this season and doesn’t give up many big pass plays (just 11.3 yards per reception allowed). That doesn’t bode well for Richardson, who likes to look for the big play and has completed only 56.4% of his passes. I project Richardson at just 5.4 yppp in this game and the Chippewas’ horrible rushing attack isn’t likely to have much success either (just 4.0 yprp projected). Only Notre Dame has averaged more than 5.0 yppl against Toledo and I project just 4.8 yppl for Central Michigan today.

Toledo’s offense, while just average, is more than good enough to move the ball consistently against a Central Michigan defense that’s surrendered 6.9 yards per play in 5 games against FBS opponents that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average defensive team, which happens to be Toledo’s compensated offensive rating. Central Michigan could be a bit worse defensively without linebacker Troy Brown, who is the #3 tackler on the team and defends the pass well (3 passes defended in 6 games is good for a linebacker). I project 446 yards are 6.7 yppl for Toledo in this game, which should allow them to pull away from the Chippewas.

Toledo is a 1-Star Best Bet at -6 points or less.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Toledo
  • Central Mich


  • Run Plays 31.3 38.5
  • Run Yards 184.5 163.8
  • YPRP 5.9 4.3


  • Pass Comp 17.5 14.7
  • Pass Att 28.8 27.7
  • Comp % 60.7% 53.0%
  • Pass Yards 227.8 165.8
  • Sacks 3.0 2.2
  • Sack Yards 17.0 13.8
  • Sack % 9.4% 7.3%
  • Pass Plays 31.8 29.8
  • Net Pass Yards 210.8 152.0
  • YPPP 6.6 5.1


  • Total Plays 63.2 68.3
  • Total Yards 395.3 315.8
  • YPPL 6.3 4.6


  • Int 0.2 0.8
  • Int % 0.6% 3.0%
  • Fumbles 0.3 1.2
  • Turnovers 0.5 2.0
  • Points 28.5 17.5
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