Texas @

West Virginia

Sat, Nov 20
ESPN2
9:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 347
Odds: West Virginia -2.5, Total: 56.5

Game Analysis

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2-Star Best Bet – **Texas (+3)  30   WEST VIRGINIA  25

Texas has lost 5 consecutive games and hit an all-time low with a 56-57 loss to lowly Kansas. It’s time to buy low on what is still a pretty good team against a West Virginia team that I’ve pegged as overrated since before the season started (I had a season win total Best Bet on WVU Under 7 wins).

Texas certainly hasn’t been as good during their 5-game losing streak but the Longhorns have still been a bit better than average from the line of scrimmage in those games (adjusted for strength of opponent) and part of that was due to the absence of big play receiver Jordan Whittington, who averaged 10.3 yards on his 35 targets before getting hurt. Coach Sarkisian also went back to giving the horrible Hudson Card snaps at quarterback the last two weeks, which is a major mistake given that he rates at 1.2 yards per pass play worse than average this season. Sarkisian has stated that he will go with Casey Thompson and won’t rotate quarterbacks and Whittingham is set to return to the lineup this week. Thompson was 1.1 yppp better than average before Whittingham’s injury and the Longhorns’ pass attack gets much better with Whittingham back and Thompson behind center full-time. The fact that WR Joshua Moore quit the team is also a plus, as Moore averaged just 5.9 yards on his 45 targets with a dismal 35% success rate. West Virginia’s pass defense has allowed 65.5% completions and is only 0.3 yppp better than average after adjusting for opposing quarterbacks faced and I expect the Longhorns pass attack to perform well in this game.

Texas RB Bijan Robinson is out for the rest of the season and Robinson’s loss does hurt the pass game, as he averaged 9.2 yards on 32 targets, but his 5.8 yards per rush is lower than the team average of 6.0 yards per rushing play – although I did adjust 0.3 yprp down for his absence. West Virginia defends the run well and I only project 4.7 yprp for the Longhorns in this game. The absence of Bijan Robinson, combined with West Virginia’s good run defense, will likely lead to more passing from Thompson, which will enhance the Texas attack.

The Texas defense isn’t as bad as the 57 points they allowed to Kansas last week, as the Jayhawks only had 409 total yards in regulation and averaged a modest 5.8 yards per play in that game. However, Texas is mediocre defensively, rating at just 0.1 yppl better than average on that side of the ball. However, the Mountaineers have averaged just 21 points in 9 games against FBS teams and their attack has been 0.1 yppl worse than an average FBS team and the Texas defense is only 0.2 yppl worse than the average stop unit the West Virginia offense has faced.

The line moved up to 3 points when it was revealed that RB Bijan Robinson was out but didn’t move at all when Whittingham was upgraded to probable and getting Whittingham back (and getting rid of WR Moore) and no more Hudson Card getting snaps at quarterback is significantly more positive than the slightly negative impact of losing Robinson. I think Texas should be favored in this game and the Longhorns also apply to a 94-29-1 ATS contrary angle that plays on road dogs on a long losing streak.

Texas is a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 -115 or better and 1-Star down to +2 points.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Texas
  • West Virginia
TEX
Offense
Defense

Rush

  • Run Plays 35.6 36.5
  • Run Yards 213.2 213.4
  • YPRP 6.0 5.8




Pass





  • Pass Comp 18.5 21.8
  • Pass Att 29.1 32.0
  • Comp % 63.6% 68.1%
  • Pass Yards 237.6 234.9
  • Sacks 2.6 1.6
  • Sack Yards 15.9 9.4
  • Sack % 8.2% 4.8%
  • Pass Plays 31.7 33.6
  • Net Pass Yards 221.7 225.5
  • YPPP 7.0 6.7

Total

  • Total Plays 67.3 70.1
  • Total Yards 434.9 438.9
  • YPPL 6.5 6.3

TO


  • Int 0.8 0.7
  • Int % 2.7% 2.2%
  • Fumbles 0.8 0.7
  • Turnovers 1.6 1.4
 
  • Points 37.8 32.5
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