Game Analysis

Note: The line has moved since releasing this play on Monday morning but Texas Tech is still a 1-Star Best Bet at -24 or less.

2-Star Best Bet – **Texas Tech (-21)  43   WEST VIRGINIA  13

Texas Tech has won 10 of their 11 games by 22 points or more, including a 22-point win over highly ranked BYU (the Cougars’ only loss of the season) and a 24-point win over a very good Utah team. The only game in which Tech did not win by 22 points or more was a loss at Arizona State in which starting quarterback Behren Morton did not play. The Red Raiders have been favored by more than 14 points in 5 games and won those games by margins of 60 points, 48 points, 31 points, 42 points, and 39 points. They are 9-1 ATS with Morton starting at quarterback with their only blemish being a 48-point win as a 48.5-point favorite against Kent State in a game they were up 48-0 at half-time before playing backups the entire second half. Texas Tech ranks 6th in the nation in compensated yards per play differential even with Morton missing what amounts to 3 games (backup Hammond  is 1.6 yards per pass play worse).

West Virginia is a below average team that rates at 0.6 yards per play worse than average offensively with Fox at quarterback (a bit better than their -0.8 yppl season rating) and average defensively.

The math model projects a win of 30.5 points for the Red Raiders, who certainly won’t be letting up knowing that every opportunity to impress the playoff committee is important should they happen to lose in the Big 12 Championship game next week.

Texas Tech is a 2-Star Best Bet at -23 points or less and 1-Star up to -24 (Strong Opinion to -25).