Texas Tech
@ 
West Virginia
Game Analysis
Lean – Under (54) – Texas Tech (-6) 27 WEST VIRGINIA 20
I’d have predicted just 49.0 total points for these teams with Garrett Greene at quarterback for West Virginia and backup Nicco Marchiol is a clear downgrade. Marchiol has completed just 13 of 23 passes an averaged only 4.4 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 7.7 yppp to an average quarterback (15 of his 26 pass plays were against a horrible Duquesne defense). I don’t think he’ll be that bad but he’s certainly well below an average FBS quarterback based on what he’s done in his career so far (he was also just 4 for 13 for 61 yards last season).
Texas Tech’s defense has been playing at an elite level so far, giving up just 4.7 yppl to teams that would combine to average 6.2 yppl against an average team, so West Virginia’s prospects wouldn’t have been that good even with Greene at quarterback.
Texas Tech’s offense projects to average 6.4 yppl in this game and using this season’s games only, with a 4.5 point adjustment for Greene being out, would favor the Red Raiders by 13 points. My updated ratings, which include my preseason ratings (and the adjustment for WVU QB) favor Tech by 10 points, but the Red Raiders apply to a negative 11-50-2 ATS situation.
I think the under is the play here.
- Team Stats
- Game Log
- Texas Tech
- West Virginia
Rush
- Run Plays 31.0 34.7
- Run Yards 187.3 141.3
- YPRP 6.0 4.1
Pass
- Pass Comp 24.3 24.0
- Pass Att 39.7 40.7
- Comp % 61.3% 59.0%
- Pass Yards 271.7 228.7
- Sacks 3.3 2.0
- Sack Yards 20.0 8.7
- Sack % 7.7% 4.7%
- Pass Plays 43.0 42.7
- Net Pass Yards 251.7 220.0
- YPPP 5.9 5.2
Total
- Total Plays 74.0 77.3
- Total Yards 439.0 361.3
- YPPL 5.9 4.7
TO
- Int 1.3 1.0
- Int % 3.4% 2.5%
- Fumbles 0.3 0.7
- Turnovers 1.7 1.7
- Points 34.7 25.3