Game Analysis

Texas State (-13.5)  36   TROY  22

My season win total bet on Troy Under 6.5 wins is looking good, as the Trojans; only win was against a bad FCS team. Texas State blew a huge lead in a loss to Sam Houston last week so they’ll keep their foot on the pedal this week if they get another double-digit lead, which is likely.

The Bobcats are too good offensively, averaging 466 yards at 6.4 yards per play, for Troy’s horrible defense to contain and Troy, while decent offensively, is not likely to score enough to stay close against what has been a solid Texas State defense that’s allowed just 4.8 yppl this season (and only gave up 5.3 yppl in their 39-40 loss).

Not sure which Troy quarterback will play but I’ll assume it will be Crowder, who is listed as questionable after leaving last week’s game. Caldwell and Kilcrease, also questionable, have both been just as good when called upon so I don’t think it really matters much.

The line on this game is a bit high (I think it should be 12.5) but Troy applies to a negative 25-72-2 ATS home dog off an upset loss as a home favorite situation and Texas State should be motivated after blowing a 22-0 lead last week.